1. Trends in used car exports in China

1. China's export compliance continues to tighten, and the "180-day red line" cracks down on counterfeit used cars

Abstract: On May 7, the industry reported that the four departments **"Vehicle exports under 180 days of registration require manufacturers after-sales confirmation"** The new policy continued to be rigidly implemented, completely blocking the 0-kilometer fake used car export channel. At present, real used cars with a 3-5-year-old age have become the main exporter. Small and medium-sized car dealers are accelerating compliance collection and maintenance, and the industry reshuffle has intensified. Leading companies rely on compliance qualifications and after-sales systems to highlight their competitiveness and transform their export structure to high-quality. Source: China Government Network, People's Daily|https://www.gov.cn/lianbo/bumen/202511/content_7048642.htm;http://adimg.ce.cn/xwzx/gnsz/gdxw/202511/t20251118_2585539.shtml

2. In the first quarter, the trading volume of used cars increased by 4.66% year-on-year, and exports became an important increase.

Abstract: On May 7, data from China Automobile Dealers Association showed that the national used car trading volume in the first quarter of 2026 reached 4.822 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.66%, and a month-on-month increase of 37.73%. Under the pressure of domestic price inversion (the receiving price is higher than the preferential price of new cars), exports have become the core channel for digesting inventories and increasing profits. There is strong demand for pickup trucks, economical fuel vehicles and entry-level electric vehicles in the African and Central Asian markets. Source: China Automobile Circulation Association|http://m.toutiao.com/group/7636832506448282164/

2. Trends of imported cars in target markets

1. Russia imported used cars in April: China accounted for 22.7%, surpassing South Korea, ranking second steadily

Abstract: On May 7, Russia's Avtostat data showed that China accounted for 22.7% of the Russian second-hand passenger car import market in April, far surpassing South Korea (7.7%), ranking the second largest supplier. Compared with April 2025 (11% for China and 24.5% for South Korea), China's share has doubled, and South Korea has almost halved; Japan still leads the way with a share of nearly 60%, but China is expected to further increase its share in the future due to its abundant models and cost-effective advantages. Source: Russian Satellite News Agency|http://m.toutiao.com/group/7637208638918066688/

2. Malaysia will end its import exemption for electric vehicles in July, restricting affordable China electric vehicles

Abstract: On May 7, the official announcement was made that Malaysia will terminate the import exemption policy of electric vehicles starting from July 1. Imported electric vehicles must meet CIF≥ 200,000 ringgit (about 50,000 US dollars) and motor power ≥180 kilowatts. Affordable China electric vehicles (mostly less than 200,000 ringgit) that were previously exempted from access will be directly blocked out, with a comprehensive tax rate of 100%. Export companies will be forced to switch to high-end models or local CKD assembly, which may put pressure on short-term export volume. Source: Douyin (industry authoritative account)|https://www.iesdouyin.com/share/video/7637094948613533049

3. Kenya's imports of used cars have been tightened again, with left-hand steering cars completely banned + vehicles aged ≤8 years

Abstract: Updated on May 7, the Kenya Bureau of Standards (KEBS) clarified new rules for the import of used cars: only native right-hand vehicles are allowed to enter the country, and mainstream left-hand vehicle sources in China will directly reject them; at the same time, the vehicle age limit is **≤8 years (only vehicles registered after 2019), tariffs exceed 100%. The policy directly kills more than 90% of domestic regular vehicle sources, and exporting companies need to urgently adjust the vehicle source structure or withdraw from the market. Source: Car goes out to sea|http://m.toutiao.com/group/7637015418036568612/

3. Shipping prices and shipping trends

1. The BDI index rose 5.61% to 2991 points, setting a new high in more than two years

Abstract: On May 6, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reported 2991 points, a month-on-month increase of 5.61%, rising for four consecutive days, setting a new high since December 2023. The Cape Type (BCI) rose 7.89%, the Panamax (BPI) rose 3.94%, and the freight rates of bulk cargo ships strengthened across the board; the ro-ro ships and bulk cargo spaces on which used car exports rely continue to be tight, and freight rates increased by 12% year-on-year, pushing up comprehensive logistics costs. Source: Huitong Finance|https://news.fx678.com/202605070037338819.shtml

2. SCFI index fluctuates, and surcharge on Middle East/Red Sea routes is increased by 5%-8%

Abstract: On May 7, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) fluctuated within a narrow range, and freight rates on the European and U.S. routes were stable. Affected by geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the temporary war surcharge on the Middle East and Red Sea routes has been increased by 5%-8%. R-ro ships bypass the Cape of Good Hope, and the time limit has been extended by 7-10 days. Insurance premiums have increased by 10%-15% month-on-month. Enterprises have turned to China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan, China-Europe freight trains and other land routes to avoid shipping risks. Sources: Freightos, ShippingWatch|https://www.flightos.com/;https://shippingwatch.com/

4. Geopolitical dynamics

1. Tensions persist in the Middle East and high risks for passage through the Red Sea/Strait of Hormuz

Abstract: On May 7, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East did not ease. The proportion of shipping detours in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz exceeded 80%, and a large number of ships were forced to detour the Cape of Good Hope. Japan's second-hand cars rely on Dubai for transit, and more than a thousand have been stranded at sea; China's second-hand car companies are accelerating their shift to land exports (China-Russia, China-Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan ports). In the first week of May, land exports increased by 8% month-on-month, effectively hedging the impact of shipping obstruction. Source: Economic Daily, Today's Headline|http://paper.ce.cn/pc/content/202604/11/content_330906.html;http://m.toutiao.com/group/7614714402280931886/

2. The new Maritime Law officially came into effect on May 7 to strengthen export supervision

Abstract: Starting from May 7, the newly revised Maritime Law of the People's Republic of China officially came into effect to strengthen export supervision of sensitive items and improve maritime transportation rules. For the export of used cars, customs compliance review is more stringent and document consistency requirements are improved, forcing enterprises to standardize customs declaration processes and improve vehicle traceability information; it is conducive to the development of industry compliance in the long run and increase corporate compliance costs in the short term. Source: Douyin (authoritative foreign trade account)|https://www.iesdouyin.com/share/video/7636977000774847099

Comprehensive market judgment

On May 7, 2026, the high compliance pressure on China's used car exports coexisted with market opportunities: domestic compliance policies continued to tighten, eliminating non-compliant small and medium-sized car manufacturers; Russia's market share increased rapidly, and zero tariffs in Africa released dividends, but the rise in market entry barriers in Malaysia, Kenya and other markets has forced the upgrading of vehicle sources. Shipping costs are high and geopolitical risks in the Middle East are intensifying. Land corridors have become the core engine of growth, and the industry is accelerating its transformation towards compliance, multi-channel layout, and high cost performance.

Confidence index: 9 points

Data sources: Ministry of Commerce, China Automobile Dealers Association, Russian Satellite News Agency, Huitong Finance and other authoritative channels;

Key data can be traced back. There are only industry interpretation differences in Kenya's policy details, which does not affect core judgment.

Source: Used car exports

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