1. Market fundamentals (2026)

Strong demand resilience: There is a large supply gap for new cars (sales will drop by 15% to 1.3 million in 2025), and consumers are turning to second-hand; the annual transaction volume is expected to be +4% to 7%, and those who just need to buy cars will focus on selecting low-tax, compliant and high-quality vehicles. Source, the circulation of old and high-tax models has slowed down significantly.

Price recovery: In February 2026, the average price will return to 1.4 million rubles +; the average price of used cars of China brands will be 2.2 million rubles +, doubling the share, and the terminal premium capacity of new cars with compliance, low taxes and fees continues to rise.

Structural aging: 72% of the vehicles are over 10 years old; the mainstream for 3-6 years and quasi-new vehicles are scarce within 3 years (only 3%). Coupled with the new regulations in 2026, the scrapping tax on fuel vehicles has been significantly increased in 3-5 years. The focus of industry selection is fully tilted towards compliant vehicles within three years.

China's share has soared: in 2025, China's imports of used cars will increase 2.5 times, and its share will increase from 3% to 16%; Suifenhe Port exports about 3000 vehicles a month, and mainstream truck types at the port all evade high taxes for 3-5 years and large-displacement fuel vehicles.

2. Core policies (key in 2026)

Fuel trucks tighten

A 15% import tax will be imposed on vehicles that are 5 years old; 2.0L old fuel vehicles are directly banned from entering the market, with no buffer approval channel.

The scrapping tax will be increased by 50% overall, and the charging will be stepped based on displacement/power, focusing on increasing the increase in income for mainstream fuel vehicles in circulation for 3-5 years. Under the same horsepower range, the comprehensive landing cost of vehicles in 3-5 years is much higher than that of new vehicles in 3-5 years; At the same time, the individual entry compliance subsidy will be completely cancelled for>160 horsepower models.

The domestic "180-day red line" is strictly implemented: strictly check customs declaration materials throughout the process, prohibit illegal exports of "zero-kilometer fake second-hand" within 180 days, and avoid the risk of seizure and confiscation at ports.

New energy benefits (2026-2028)

Second-hand pure electricity/plug-in hybrid electricity is exempted from 20% tariff and only 10% value-added tax is paid. The full-age compliance cost advantage is fully realized and is not affected by the fuel vehicle scrapping tax increase policy.

Individual terminal buyers who purchase compliant second-hand new energy vehicles can apply for a special cash purchase subsidy of up to 50,000 rubles. The terminal traffic speed far exceeds that of fuel vehicles.

The large-scale construction of public charging piles in cold regions across Russia is accelerating, and domestic second-hand new energy vehicles adapted to extreme cold and low temperature battery life continues to increase in regional circulation.

3. Demand and vehicle models

Moscow (high-end): The city will give priority to purchasing quasi-new cars, original paints, and high-quality vehicles for full 4S maintenance within 3 years; 160 horsepower + compliant models are preferred; the main supplier is to distribute China's high-end (Red Flag H9) and well-known German luxury cars, completely avoiding high-tax 3-5-year-old fuel vehicles.

St. Petersburg (cost performance): The local area has a three-to-five-year-old model with a demand of ≤1.6L/≤160 horsepower. Affected by the sharp increase in scrapping tax in 3-5 years, the comprehensive purchase profit has been severely compressed. Now it is gradually turning to affordable fuel vehicles within three years; Retain compliant low-tax inventory of German/Japanese B-class and cost-effective mainstream China SUVs (Haval H6, Geely Xingyue L).

Siberia/Far East (durable manufacturing): Just need to lock in four-wheel drive, alpine, anti-freezing and durable models; prefer Japanese hardcore (Prado, Hailax) and China hard-core off-road (Haval H9, Tank 300), give priority to low-tax compliant vehicles with age, and control the overall landing cost.

Hot-selling China models across the region: BYD Song PLUS EV, Haval H6, Geely Emgrand, Chery Ariza 5, Changan CS35, all of which are adapted to low tax access standards and meet terminal needs across Russia.

4. Opportunities and risks for China car dealers

opportunity

Within three years of compliance, high-quality and low-tax vehicles can be supplied, and the terminal can have a stable premium of 150,000 - 200,000 rubles. There is no need to worry about customers and quick payment.

There is no high scrapping tax superimposed on second-hand new energy throughout the entire process. The comprehensive export cost of bicycles has dropped by 15,000 - 30,000 per unit. Coupled with local car purchase subsidies, the profit margin is extremely advantageous.

2023-2024 In 2001, China's local new cars entered the replacement cycle in batches, and there was sufficient supply of new cars in compliance with regulations. The demand for bulk procurement of local B-terminal (online ride-hailing/urban logistics) in Russia erupted intensively.

The entire China-Europe freight train lasts for 12-15 days, and the capital turnover efficiency is twice that of traditional shipping, which is suitable for the rapid replenishment pace during the peak season.

risk

Conventional mid-to-low-end 3-5-year-old fuel vehicles, with a 50% increase in scrapping tax, have been greatly squeezed and shipped at a loss.

The Russian local market has completely shifted from a seller's market to a buyer's leadership. Terminal car prices continue to drop slightly, and competition for compliant and low-cost vehicles from peers has become increasingly fierce.

The two-way fluctuations in the real-time exchange rate of the ruble and the local credit interest rate directly affect the actual purchasing power of local people's terminal car purchases, and the price difference between short and peak seasons is obvious.

Source: Digital export-pomegranate

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