After the data for the first half of 2026 came out, one number silenced the entire used car export circle.

Not the total number-325,000 vehicles, US$7.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 61%. These are certainly not bad. What really makes people's scalp tingling is another figure: exports of new energy used cars surged by 196% year-on-year.

Three times in the same period last year.

Moreover, this occurred 180 days after the red line came into effect on January 1, 2026-the 0-kilometer quasi-new car exit channel was blocked, and the industry was forced to return to the track of real used cars. It is against this background that new energy used cars not only did not fall, but exploded.

This is no longer a tuyere, it is a reconstruction of the sector.

One or three sets of data have lifted the trump card of fuel vehicles

Let's talk about the three hardest numbers first.

First group: 31%.

Of the 325,000 used cars exported in the first half of 2026, new energy accounted for 31%. At this time last year, the proportion was only about 11%. In one year, the proportion has tripled.

What does this mean? This means that one out of every three used cars exported has a green license plate.

Group 2: The average FOB price is 30% higher, and the gross profit is 1.5 to 2 times.

This number is what really makes traders unable to sit still. It is also a second-hand car, and the FOB price for a 3-year-old BYD Yuan PLUS is 30% higher than that of a joint venture fuel SUV of the same age. When it comes to overseas terminals, there is a greater premium space. Moreover, the condition of new energy vehicles is more transparent-the battery health can be read, the motor does not have the problem of carbon deposition and burning oil, and the servicing cost is lower than that of fuel vehicles.

Looking at the inside and outside, the gross profit of a single vehicle is 1.5 to 2 times that of a fuel vehicle.

Group 3: 48.97 million vehicles.

This is the number of new energy vehicles nationwide as of the end of June 2026. There are 33.675 million pure electric vehicles. These cars are entering the second-hand market at a rate of 2 - 3 million per year. The average replacement period for domestic new energy car owners is 2-3 years-much shorter than that of fuel vehicles.

The vehicle source pool is expanding at an accelerating pace and is irreversible. Next, the supply of second-hand new energy released every year will only increase and never decrease.

When the three sets of numbers are put together, the underlying logic becomes clear:

On the demand side-overseas markets are accepting China's smart electric vehicles, and the price advantage overtakes Japanese second-hand fuel vehicles at the same price.

The supply side-the domestic ownership is nearly 50 million, the replacement period is short, and the supply of vehicles is continuous.

Profit end-the gross profit of a single vehicle is 30%-100%, the maintenance cost is low, and the turnover is faster.

This is the triple resonance of supply, demand and interest. It is not a tuyere, it is a structural transfer.

2. The wind is still blowing, but the ceiling is already visible

If the 196% growth rate explodes again, three things have to be calmly looked at.

First: Charging infrastructure-the largest ceiling for new energy exports.

The charging network in most countries in Africa is almost zero. The coverage rate of charging piles in Central Asia is much lower than the growth rate of electric vehicles-the shortage of charging piles in Uzbekistan will reach 32,000 in 2025. Southeast Asia is slightly better, but it is still far from enough.

Micro pure electricity can be circumvented by household outlets. What about pure trams with medium-sized SUVs and above? Once the market is saturated with mini cars and wants to move up, charging is a hard threshold.

Whoever first arranges overseas charging and replacing facilities will be able to lift this ceiling.

Second: after-sales sales-an order of magnitude more difficult than fuel vehicles.

After-sales sales of fuel vehicles are essentially mechanical problems: parts can be repaired as soon as they arrive. New energy vehicles involve battery management systems, motor controllers, and vehicle OTA-without the support of the car company's authorization system, used car exporters cannot do it themselves.

This is why in the first half of 2026, the top 10 companies accounted for 62% of the industry's trade volume. It's not that small and medium-sized enterprises don't want to make new energy, but it's that after-sales cannot pass through.

The good news is that Sichuan has taken the lead in building the country's first provincial-level comprehensive overseas service system for used car exports, and has established overseas comprehensive service stations in six countries including Uzbekistan, Belarus, United Arab Emirates, and Russia. The All-Union Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce has also taken the lead in establishing the China Used Car Export Quality and Overseas After-Sales Service Guarantee Alliance. The direction is in the right direction, but it will take time to cover major export markets.

Third: Policy variables-the sword always hanging above your head.

The window period of preferential policies for new energy imports for Central Asian countries is narrowing. Russia's scrapping tax is still dynamically adjusted. The EU's countervailing tariffs on China's electric vehicles are also increasing. A sudden change in any policy variable will directly affect the profit model of a particular market.

What can withstand policy fluctuations is never luck, but market diversification.  Fortunately, China's export destinations of used cars currently cover the four major sectors of Europe, Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia-the top ten markets account for 78% of the total, but none exceeds 20%. Eggs are not in one basket, which is the biggest policy safety cushion.

Three or three window periods. If you don't move now, you'll miss it

Combined with the above analysis, three clear window periods are already in front of us:

Window 1: There are still about 12-18 months left for the bonus window for micro pure electricity.

Charging infrastructure in Central and Southeast Asia is catching up, but not too fast. Before the charging network was formed, models that could be charged in sockets such as Hongguang MINIEV and Dolphin would still have a price dividend for at least one year. When the density of local charging piles increases and higher-end models can also enter on a large scale, the gross profit advantage of micro pure electricity will be compressed. If you want to do quantity, you must lay down the channels now.

Window 2: Hybrid golden track will not be cold for 2-3 years.

Hybrid models are China's unique advantageous category in the world-Japanese hybrids are too old and European hybrids are too expensive. In markets such as Central Asia and the Middle East with imperfect charging infrastructure but moderate purchasing power, the demand for hybrid used vehicles will have a fairly long climbing period. Moreover, the threshold for hybrid servicing and after-sales is moderate, making it the most suitable category for medium-sized traders to enter.

Window 3: The brand dividend period of high-end pure electricity depends on who can set up the service system first.

Markets such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar are showing increasing interest in high-end China pure electricity, but the bottleneck is not demand, but the service experience after delivery. Whoever can first establish a standardized delivery testing-after-sales maintenance-parts supply system in these markets will be able to eat the first wave of brand premiums.

5. Conclusion

2019 was the first year of China's second-hand car export pilot, with 4300 vehicles throughout the year.

Seven years later, in 2026, 325,000 vehicles were exported in the first half of the year alone. Among them, new energy accounted for 31%, up 196% year-on-year.

Fuel vehicles compete for whose vehicle source is cheaper. New energy is fighting for whose services are more complete.

The 196% growth rate is a signal. It tells everyone that second-hand new energy going to sea is not a matter of whether to do it, but a matter of entering the market early or waiting to regret it.

Source: Xiong Yu, digital automobile export

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