From 47 to 3000: The qualification dividend for used car exports is dead, and the real knockout round has just begun

There are 3000 enterprises with used car export qualifications across the country.

This figure is the official statement given by Huang Ruoyu, chairman of the Used Car Export Branch of China Automobile Dealers Association, in public in June 2026. Just three years ago, the number was 47.

From 47 to 3000, it has increased more than 60 times. But don't rush to envy this track yet-on the back side of the big release of qualifications, the dividends have bottomed out and the knockout rounds have officially begun.

1. 47 to 3000: A major release of policy loosening

Time pulls back to 2019. A pilot project for the export of used cars was launched, and a strict approval system was implemented. Only 47 companies across the country received admission tickets. Qualifications are scarce, and a license plate is a gold mine. The gray business of reselling qualifications and borrowing licenses for export was once undercurrent.

In March 2024, the policy turned. Five departments including the Ministry of Commerce announced that the export of used cars has been changed from the approval system to the filing system-as long as you are an independent legal person, have a fixed office space, and have a place to display and sell used cars, you can file for export.

As soon as the threshold was lowered, the number of companies soared:47 to more than 3000.

Data does not lie, this track is indeed exploding:

● Export volume has jumped from less than 3000 units in 2019 to 436,000 units in 2024, more than 100 times in five years;

● Business covers more than 160 countries and regions around the world

● Central Asia and Russia account for more than 50% of the market.

It looks prosperous. But under the prosperity, there is a question that most people ignore: among the 3000 qualified companies, how many are actually shipping?

2. Registration ≠ shipment: the true quality of 3000 companies

To tell the heart-breaking truth: There are only three thresholds for filing, and their essence is admission tickets, not ability certification.

Among the 3000 companies, there is roughly this structure:

head players

●: Dozens to one or two hundred companies contribute the vast majority of exports and have their own vehicle sources, channels and delivery capabilities;

waist enterprise

●: Make orders if you have them, stop if you don't have them, and produce dozens of units a year, earning information gaps and handling fees;

Zhankeng Enterprise

●: Lay down after filing, wait for the qualification to be sold, wait for the wind to come, and wait for the big order to hit your head. The performance is zero.

To put it bluntly, there is a whole industrial chain between qualified and able to ship.“ nbsp; Qualification has never been a moat, just a minimum ticket to admission.

What is even more troublesome is that as there are more companies occupying the hole, the risk of bad money driving out good money comes: grabbing orders at low prices, killing peers, and then running away badly, destroying the reputation of the industry. This is exactly what regulators do not want to see the most.

3. New Deal in November 2025: Why does supervision take action

In November 2025, the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, and the General Administration of Customs jointly issued a document to further strengthen the supervision of used car exports. The signal is very clear:

Strictly check exports in the name of new cars

1. : Investigate the export situation of local modified vehicle manufacturers and the modification production capacity that is compatible with the export volume one by one. If the authenticity of the modification cannot be proved, it will be directly stuck;

Standardize the application for export licenses

2. : The application information must be completely consistent with the Motor Vehicle Registration Certificate, and not one character must be worse;

Repair after-sales loopholes

3. : Starting from January 1, 2026, vehicles with an export registration date of less than 180 days must submit a supplementary "After-Sales Maintenance Service Confirmation Form".

Translation:The regulatory authorities have had enough of the current situation that half of the 3000 households are running naked, and have begun to set rules and clear up venues for the industry.

Modified cars are the hardest hit areas-many companies hold the qualifications for exporting used cars and are engaged in the business of exporting modified new cars. There is a serious mismatch between production capacity and export volume, and the entire industry is blamed for quality problems. This investigation was the one who was stuck.

4. 2026 Shuffle: Who will be out first

Some people in the industry have already made it clear: In December 2025, some industry insiders publicly predicted that there will be about 3000 used car dealers exporting used cars across the country, which will be reduced by at least half next year.

This is not alarmist. There are three underlying logic for shuffling:

Article 1: Increased compliance costs.  Filing is free, but compliance has a cost. Verification of authenticity of modification, after-sales maintenance network, testing and certification, license management-each is a real investment. Zhankeng enterprises had no shipments or profits, and could not afford these costs at all, so they naturally withdrew.

Rule 2: The license cannot be used.  If there is a record ≠ there is a quota ≠ the ability to apply for a license. The 2026 export license application notice has been issued, and only enterprises within the validity period of the filing can apply. Those enterprises with zero performance are even too lazy to apply for licenses, and the significance of occupying pits is zero.

Article 3: The market returns to the buyer.  Overseas customers are afraid of low-price and low-quality orders, and increasingly recognize brands, services, and delivery records. There is no difference between 3000 companies in the eyes of overseas customers. The difference is whether you have a real shipping history.

Therefore, what will be eliminated in 2026 will not be small businesses, butcompanies with only qualifications and no capabilities-no matter if you are a large group or a small workshop, as long as you are not really selling cars, you will be the one that will be eliminated.

Write at the end:

3000 companies are not the glory of this industry, but the watershed of this industry.

In the 47 era, the focus is on qualifications; in the 3000 era, the focus is on skills. Regulation is tightening, markets are clearing, and dividends are disappearing-but it is precisely at this time that serious people have the opportunity to turn credit into the hardest currency in the industry.

Second-hand car exports are not air outlets, but long-distance running. Those who run fast may not live long; those who live long must run steadily.

Source: Xiong Yu, digital automobile export

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