The industry group has exploded in the past two days: Russia is suspending the collection of used car scrapping taxes?

The source of the news was a report in Russian media: a political party proposed to suspend scrapping taxes until 2030.

Here's my conclusion: this is just an opposition proposal, taxes are still being collected, and they have just increased. nbsp; The person who sent the message didn't tell you everything. Today, I'll tell you the whole story.

01 |What exactly did the rumors say?

On July 20, 2026, Slutsky, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, submitted a bill to the State Duma:

Temporarily cancel the passenger car scrapping tax until January 1, 2030.

The reasons for the proposal are quite down-to-earth:

● Starting from January 1, 2026, the scrapping tax will increase by another 10%-20%. The greater the engine power and the higher the displacement, the more the increase will be;

● The superimposed value-added tax was increased to 22%, and the comprehensive landing cost of some models was pushed up by 1 million-1.5 million rubles;

● Slutsky's original words were: The scrapping tax has become a tool to pay money from the pockets of the people. The original intention of environmental protection that was promised when it was established in 2012 has long since changed, and cars have become a luxury that most Russian people cannot afford.

When the news spread to China, it became that Russia was going to stop collecting scrapping taxes-the emotions were high and the facts were out of shape.

02 |Fact check: Taxes are still being collected and have just increased

Look at the hard data first, not the emotions:

Bottom line: The tax increase channel is open, and the tax cut is just a shout.

03 |Why is this proposal unlikely to pass?

Everyone who is an exporter knows that Russia's policy cannot be looked at just by the news headlines, but by three logics:

First, its partisan nature determines its destiny. The bill was proposed by the Liberal Democrats-the opposition party. Such proposals to please voters are basically a political show in the Russian Duma. Similar suspension plans have been proposed in 2023, but none have been implemented. The ruling United Russia Party did not follow suit, indicating that this was not the government's will.

Second, scrapping taxes are Russia's fiscal cow. Tens of billions of rubles every year are stopped at will? What Russia lacks most in finance now is money-military spending, subsidies, and ruble exchange rate. Which one does not want money? It is unrealistic to expect it to proactively cut off a stable tax source.

Third and most critical: scrapping tax is the core barrier to industrial protection. What has Russia done with imported cars since 2024?

● Close the gray transit channel in Central Asia;

● Scrap tax continues to rise by 70%-85% starting;

● VAT 20%→22%;

● Tighten parallel imports and promote localization requirements.

The purpose of this combination of punches is only one: to increase the cost of imported cars and give up the market to local Avtovaz and localized factories.  Scrap tax is the main body of this wall. You told me the government was going to tear down the wall itself? The direction is completely reversed.

04 |Even if it really stops, it may not be good for you

There is a counter-intuitive point here. Brothers in the Russian market must understand:

The scrapping tax is not as simple as charging you an extra penny. It is an admission ticket for China cars in the Russian market.

● With scrapping tax, used cars from Japan and Europe cannot enter, and only China cars can move;

● Once the scrapping tax is really cancelled, local Russian brands will still be supported by subsidies, while Japanese and European used cars will quickly return--

At that time, you were not facing a tariff issue, but a more fierce opponent.

So don't expect it to stop. If it rises, at least it means that the door is still closed.

05 |What should exporters do now

Three practical suggestions, directly copy the homework:

1. Don't move the quotation and don't change the baseline. Cost calculations continue to be calculated based on the annual increase of 10%-20% of scrapping tax +22% of value-added tax. Before any suspension message is implemented, it will be treated as fake.

2. Focus on three signals, not news headlines.

● Whether the Russian government (Ministry of Economic Development/Ministry of Industry and Trade) has officially responded-no response = no chance;

● Whether the bill enters the Duma for first reading-it is normal for opposition party proposals to be rejected on first reading;

● Whether United Russia or government officials express their support-this is the weathervane.

3. Write policy hedging into the contract. In the export clauses to Russia, it is recommended to clarify who will bear the cost changes caused by changes in tax and fee policies, and not let the increase in the indexed increase in scrapping tax eat up your gross profit. This is currently a more reliable profit-ensuring move than hoping that it will stop collecting.

written in the end

When doing cross-border business, the most expensive thing is not tariffs, but information distortion.

When a proposal is passed down into a policy, and after a circle in the group, some people dare to adjust the quotation, suppress inventory, and gamble on the market accordingly-the cost of trial and error is always higher than the cost of learning.

The direction of Russia's scrapping tax has not changed: it will not be less for a year until 2030.  Instead of waiting for a cake that will not be redeemed, it is better to calculate the cost of each order to two decimal places.

Source: Xiong Yu, digital automobile export

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