Alternative summary:Russia is back on top of the overall list-but that's the map of fuel vehicles. New energy used cars, which have really surged by 196%, are taking another route: micro pure electricity to Southeast Asia, hybrid electricity to the Middle East, and high-end pure electricity to Central Asia. Understanding this new energy flow chart is ten times more important than understanding the total volume list.

New energy used car exports +196%: Where are they sold? The answer is not in Russia

In the first half of the year, 325,000 vehicles were exported, and Russia returned to first with 61,000 vehicles-this list has gone crazy.

But please calm down. Russia's championship is earned by fuel vehicles.

In the same semi-annual report, there is a fact that is covered by the list: exports of new energy used vehicles surged 196% year-on-year, almost three times that of the same period last year. And the place where it flows has little to do with Russia.

The total number list tells you that there are many cars, and the flow chart tells you where the money is. The map of new energy is another map.

1. Russia is king of fuel, not electricity

Russia's ability to reach the top relies on the land transportation channel for used fuel-fueled vehicles: freight trains, short cycles, mature channels, combined with the huge number of new cars owned by China brands in the local area.

But electric vehicles in Russia are another story-thesevere cold climate, weak charging networks, and the pressure of scrapping taxes have always made pure electric used cars a niche in Russia. The industry has long pointed out that new energy infrastructure in Eurasian regions such as Russia and Central Asia is weak, and consumers want cost-effective complete vehicles and rely more on accessories and after-sales services-this is not a market that electric used cars can quickly grab.

In the past few years, parallel exports labeled as Central Asia re-exporting to Russia have earned more from the arbitrage of tariff differences and fuel/intermixing, and cannot represent the long-term destination of used electric vehicles.

Let's put the conclusion here first: For every 10 increase in exports of new energy used vehicles, less than one vehicle may be heading for Russia.

2. The true flow direction of new energy used cars: three lines, three markets

The semi-annual report of the Circulation Association is very detailed-new energy used vehicles are distributed according to model, and the direction is completely different:

The first line: miniature pure electricity, going to Southeast Asia and Central Asia. Accounting for more than half of new energy exports are miniature vehicles such as Hongguang MINIEV and BYD Dolphin. Their logic is that short-distance commuting is just needed + low prices are easy to get started. In Southeast Asian markets such as Vietnam and Cambodia, as well as Central Asian cities, they are the main force visible to the naked eye.

The second line: Hybrid, go to Kazakhstan and the Middle East. Interviews such as Qin PLUS and Song PLUS accounted for 33%. The logic is very simple: there is no anxiety about charging, and both oil and electricity are used-logistics companies in Central Asia have taken the initiative to name hybrids, and home users in the Middle East have also bought it.

The third line: high-end pure electricity, to United Arab Emirates and Uzbekistan. Ideal, Tesla, etc. account for 15%, and flow to high-profit markets: United Arab Emirates is a consumption and entrepot hub in the Middle East, and Uzbekistan is a policy highland in Central Asia-with new energy tax-free dividends, local consumption power is being educated and matured by China brands.

Summarize this map in one sentence: heading south, towards Central Asia, towards the Middle East-just not to north.

3. Why these places? Policy dividends are directed

The flow direction of used new energy cars has never been about where they are cheaper, butwhere they are given policies and where they can be implemented:

Uzbekistan

: Benchmark market for tax exemption policies in Central Asia. The shortage of charging piles is as high as 32,000, and the planned investment in new energy infrastructure is US$460 million. The infrastructure window itself is a bonus for the first mover, and China is already the country's largest source of automobile imports.

Southeast Asia

:RCEP tariff incentives are combined with short-distance demand for on-shore use, and micro pure electricity has almost no match.

United Arab Emirates

: Free zones + high net worth people + Dubai re-exports radiate to East Africa, and high-end pure electricity has the strongest premium capacity.

Counterexample in Africa

: The charging infrastructure in most countries is almost zero, and the ceilings of used electric vehicles are visible to the naked eye-it is still the home of fuel vehicles, and the intermingling is just a tentative penetration.

4. Three truths behind 196%

Truth 1: The vehicle source pool will get bigger and bigger. As of the end of June, there were 48.97 million new energy vehicles in the country, including 33.67 million pure electricity; the replacement cycle for young domestic users is only 2-3 years. Under the dual effects of rapid inflow and large stock, the source of export vehicles is almost unlimited ammunition.

Truth 2: This is the segment with the highest gross profit in the industry. The average FOB price of new energy used vehicles and bicycles is about 30% higher than that of fuel vehicles, and the gross profit is about 1.5-2 times that of fuel vehicles. If you run one order, you will earn the money of two orders-a growth rate of 196%, which is essentially capital voting with its feet.

Truth 3: The ceiling lies in infrastructure, not demand. Charging facilities are the only hard constraint. Whoever can sell the car and bring out charging, power replacement, and after-sales plans will be able to enjoy the long-term premium-Uzbekistan's US$460 million infrastructure investment is an invitation to those who laid out first.

written in the end

Russia is the throne in the era of fuel-fired used cars. And used new energy vehicles, which have surged by 196%, are going to places with policies, demand, and infrastructure expectations-they are the profit map for the next three years.

Source: Xiong Yu, digital automobile export

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