Abstract: The 8% quota + 80% tariff thrown by ANFIA is not an EU policy, but it may be the most noteworthy signal bomb before 2028.

lead

In the past two days, a screenshot of the EU imposing an 80% tariff on Chinese cars has been swiped in the circle.

Let me first conclude: This is not a policy of the European Union or a decision of the Italian government, but a public call from the chairman of an industry association to Reuters.

But if you scratch it away like noise because of this, you're wrong. Hidden in this proposal is a line that is more ruthless than the entire vehicle-parts.This line is facing the current main revenue of many China exporters.

1. Solve the facts: What did he say?

On September 9, Roberto Vavassori, Chairman of the Italian Auto Parts Industry Association ANFIA, was interviewed by Reuters in Milan and proposed a set of trade protection plans with China:

His exact words are worth remembering:

We have the greatest respect for the achievements of China's industry, but this respect has now turned into fear.

Supporting this statement is a set of his own data he gave:

● Italian parts and components companies will export 4.9 billion euros to Germany in 2025, of which mass procurement will account for up to 20%

● Italian parts and components exports have fallen by 4.6% in the first half of the year and are expected to fall by about 10% for the whole year.

● He warned: Without protection, Italy's parts and components exports may plummet by 40%-50% by 2028, which will really mean the end of everything.

What triggered his statement was a set of data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA): In thefirst half of this year, the proportion of China brand cars in new car sales in the EU has risen to more than 9%-just over the 8% line he drew. A few days earlier, Volkswagen had just approved a major restructuring plan.

By the way, he also approved the EU's own Industrial Accelerator Act: he believed that the bill would encourage imports from free trade partners such as Morocco and Turkey in disguise, but as far as the current text is concerned, it will not promote anything other than accelerating the demise of the European automobile industry.

2. The real minefield: parts

This is the part of this proposal that needs to be seen most.

When many people see the 80% tariff, their first reaction is to calculate the account for the export of the entire vehicle. But please read that sentence again--

This policy should cover both the vehicle and parts, as parts account for approximately 80% of the total value of a car.

His logic is very clear: it is no use just blocking the entire vehicle, China car companies will go to Europe to build factories to bypass it; what really needs to be blocked is the inflow of parts.  To this end, he even defined the factories of China car companies in Europe-a screwdriver factory, which only does simple assembly, and most of the parts are still imported from China or low-cost countries around Europe.

What does this mean?

Vehicle exports + after-sales parts exports are currently the two main channels for China's automobile exports to Europe. If the quota system is extended to parts and components, the channel for making parts and wearing parts will be more threatened than the entire vehicle.

And pay attention to timing: the number of vehicles owned by China brands in the European market is rapidly accumulating, and the peak demand for after-sales parts is still ahead. As soon as the cake is about to start cutting, the rules may be rewritten.

3. What will happen if it does land?

Don't panic, but rehearse. Ranked from high to low by degree of influence:

Direct export of parts and components to Europe

1. : The most directly affected, especially the wearing parts and general parts that go through the trader channel; the entire vehicle is exported to Europe

2. : Once the 8% quota comes true, it will set a general ceiling for all China brands, and the allocation method itself is a game (divided by brand? Divided by historical quantity? Divided by investment amount?)

Cost model for localized assembly

3. : Once the quota is formed, building factories in Europe will change from optional to mandatory, but note that he is already labeling the screwdriver factory--

The proportion of local procurement is likely to become the next regulatory focus

conclusion

Summarize this proposal in one sentence: the attitude is fierce, the landing is far away, and the direction is accurate.

There is a high probability that it will not become law as 80%, but the line it points out-from complete vehicles to parts, from tariffs to quotas-is likely to be the true evolution direction of the EU's automotive policy towards China in the next three years.

Source: Xiong Yu, digital automobile export

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