In the first half of the year, 325,000 vehicles and new energy surged by 196%: is it too late to export used cars?

1. Let's first break an illusion: the export of used cars we are talking about now is not the same business as three years ago.

Let's put out the timeline first.

In 2024, the country will export about 400,000 vehicles in the name of used cars. In 2025, this number will rush to 750,000 vehicles. On the surface, it looks like a beautiful growth curve, but this curve is mixed with a lot of moisture-a considerable proportion of used cars are new cars that have just rolled off the production line and have not yet crossed the road.

In the industry, they call it zero-kilometer used cars. Its essence is not the used car trade, but the new car trade that circumvents the overseas authorization system of the main engine factory. According to the Economic Observer, zero-kilometer models account for more than 90% of the new energy used vehicles exported by China in 2024.

The business will be officially closed on January 1, 2026.& nbsp; During the same period, the channels for exporting new cars in the name of modified vehicles were also tightened simultaneously, and materials proving the authenticity of the modification must be submitted.

Half a year after the red line was implemented, the structure was completely rewritten.

Data from China Automobile Dealers Association shows that in the first half of 2026, the country's total export of used cars was 325,000, with an export value of US$7.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 61% and 54% respectively.  Among these 325,000 vehicles, the proportion of quasi-new vehicles registered for less than 180 days has dropped to less than 9%; 64% are 3 to 5 years old, and 27% are 5 to 8 years old.

In other words: the total export volume is rising, but the composition has changed.  What is squeezed out is the part that earns the price difference by taking advantage of loopholes; what stays and flocks in are the people who are really trading in used cars.

Xiao Zhengsan, president of the China Automobile Dealers Association, judged that with the implementation of the Notice, real second-hand car exports will usher in a development window. The association itself calls 2026 the first year of used car exports.

So the first conclusion:whether it is too late must be divided into two questions first--

● Ask if zero-kilometer car arbitrage can still be done: It's too late and the door is welded.

● Ask whether second-hand car exports can still be imported: It's not too late, this first year has only begun half a year.

2. Space: The penetration rate is only 6.4%, and the ceiling is far from being touched

To judge whether a track is late, look at the penetration rate first.

Let's look at the background first: In the first eight months of 2026, China exported 7.153 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 66.7%. New car exports are fighting an unprecedented battle. But we cannot just look at the total number-in the first half of the year, 5.096 million new cars were exported, and 325,000 used cars were exported. Used cars only accounted for 6.4% of new car exports.

Exports of used cars in mature markets have never been a fraction of new cars. Look at the structure of the global plate: Lang Xuehong, deputy secretary-general of China Automobile Dealers Association, disclosed at the 2026 China Used Car Conference that the total global automobile trade volume is about 35 million, including about 28 million new cars and about 6 million to 7 million used cars.

How are these 6 million to 7 million vehicles divided:

Japan's annual export volume is more than twice the moisture content of China. Lang Xuehong's judgment is that with the accession of China, the scale of global trade in used cars is expected to rise to 10 million units.

There is also no shortage on the demand side. The region with the largest concentration of used car imports in the world is Africa, accounting for more than 30% of the global used car trade volume; followed by the Middle East and Central Asia, with the United Arab Emirates serving as a transit port, and a large number of car sources are re-exported to Africa. As Africa's most populous country, Nigeria has a population of more than 200 million, and its annual demand for imported used cars is about 1 million. There is even a local word called tokunbo, which refers specifically to imported used cars.

There is a more practical way to judge where demand comes from: look at the local distribution of China brands. nbsp; The data given by Lang Xuehong is that Latin America accounts for the highest proportion of brand ownership in China, with more than 20%; the Middle East is about 20%; the Eurasian Union is about 15%; and the European Union is about 15%. Ownership is the base. New cars sold in previous years will become the demand for used cars, parts and maintenance in three to five years.

Add another variable: starting from May 1, 2026, China will implement a unilateral zero-tariff policy on 53 African countries that have established diplomatic relations.& nbsp; This directly lowers the comprehensive cost of exports to Africa.

Conclusion: The figure of 6.4% is not that no one has done it, but the penetration rate is still extremely low. With a global share of less than 10%, it is too early to talk about saturation.

3. Where is the money: Three directions that have been cleared

Direction 1: New energy used cars-growth rate is 196%, and gross profit is 1.5 to 2 times that of fuel vehicles

New energy used vehicles exported in the first half of the year accounted for 31% of the total, a year-on-year increase of 196%. According to industry estimates, the average FOB price of a bicycle for used new energy vehicles is about 30% higher than that of a fuel vehicle, and the gross profit can reach 1.5 to 2 times that of a fuel vehicle.

What supports it is a solid supply pool. Data shows that as of the end of June 2026, the number of new energy vehicles in the country was 48.97 million, including 33.675 million pure electric vehicles. The replacement cycle of domestic new energy vehicles is short, and vehicle sources are continuously and rapidly flowing into the second-hand market. The water at the supply end has just been released.

Direction 2: After-sales and accessories-the biggest gap in the industry and the latest policy trend

This is the most easily ignored, but probably the most valuable piece.

On September 18, 2026, at the TEDA International Forum, Liu Yan, a senior expert at the International Development and Innovation Alliance of China Automobile Enterprises, clearly pointed out that the surge in automobile exports will pose a severe test on after-sales service capabilities. The competent authorities are expected to take measures to strengthen supervision to prevent China's automobile products from being sold quickly and repaired slowly in overseas markets, affecting brand reputation.

Bottom line: After-sales has gone from a bonus to a threshold that determines whether you can stay in the long term.

Direction 3: Regional deep cultivation + right-hand blank market

Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia are currently the three regions with the most concentrated imports of used cars. West Africa is particularly fierce-Ghana exported 14,000 vehicles in the first half of the year, a year-on-year growth rate of more than 290%. Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan in Central Asia are responsible for the transfer function of re-exporting to the broader CIS market.

There is also a gap that almost no one occupies: global annual sales of right-hand steering vehicles are about 17 million to 18 million units, covering key regions such as ASEAN, the UK, and Japan. Lang Xuehong clearly pointed out that domestic used car companies currently have almost no right-hand rudder product resources, and if they want to enter these markets, they must cooperate with the main engine factory to obtain vehicle sources.  This is a market with thresholds but few competitors.

6. Calculate the multiplier clearly: a financial skeleton of an export business

Don't write down the specific amount, write down three variables and a formula.

Current industry reference values:

● The gross profit margin of used car exports is generally around 15%, and enterprises with refined operations can exceed 20%(according to the 21st Century Business Herald).

● The unit gross profit of used new energy vehicles is about 1.5 to 2 times that of fuel vehicles.

● The average FOB price of a bicycle is about 30% higher than that of a fuel vehicle.

Core formula:

Actual income = gross profit of single vehicles × annual turnover − compliance costs − after-sales reserves − exchange and logistics fluctuations

Therefore, judging that the business value of a single order is not worth doing, regardless of how high the bicycle gross profit is, whether the bicycle gross profit × turnover times can cover the last three items.  This is also where the gap between traders and professional exporters will widen after 2026.

8. Write it at the end: from earning poor information to earning credit compound interest

Back to the original question: Is it too late to export used cars?

Doing the arbitrage business of zero-kilometer vehicles is too late and cannot be resumed. To truly export used cars, 2026 has just been recognized by the industry as the first year. It is early, not late, to enter the market.

But there is one thing you must understand:

From 2019 to 2025, this industry relies on information asymmetry-whoever first knows which country lacks what cars and whose channels can bypass authorization will win. After 2026, this logic will fail. Prices are transparent, vehicle conditions can be checked, and supervision is in place. The money earned by poor information is being replaced by money earned by credit.

What the industry lacks most now is precisely credit.

China's second-hand car exports account for less than 10% of the world, and Japan's annual exports alone are more than twice ours. The gap is not the source of the car or the price-it is the testing standards, parts network and after-sales system that have been running for decades.

Whoever first makes the two things of verifiable car conditions and achievable after-sales into standard actions will get a premium in the next five years.

This position is still empty. Remember that you do it because no one does it!

Source: Xiong Yu, digital automobile export

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