7.153 million vehicles! China's automobile exports completed in 8 months and the whole year of last year

From January to August 2026, China's automobile exports were 7.153 million units, a year-on-year increase of 66.7%, which has exceeded the total of 7.098 million units in 2025. There are still four months before the end of the year, but the export volume has already covered the entire year of last year.

But the focus of this news is not to hit a new high.

1. The total drop of only 5.1% is a composite number

In data released by China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on September 10, car sales in August were 2.712 million units, down only 5.1% year-on-year. This year, this number seems stable.

But it is the sum of two numbers in opposite directions.

On the other hand, domestic sales in August were 1.701 million vehicles, a year-on-year decline of-24.2%. The decline has exceeded 20% for five consecutive months (April-21.6%, May-20.4%, June-23.3%, July-23.6%, August-24.2%).

On the other side is exports: 1.01 million vehicles were exported in August,+65.3% year-on-year, and millions of vehicles were exported for the third consecutive month.

Domestic sales were 543,000 fewer vehicles, and export sales were 399,000 more vehicles. After offsetting, the total amount was only 146,000 less. It is clearer to lengthen to the first eight months: about 3.67 million vehicles are sold less in China and about 2.86 million vehicles are sold more in exports-exports make up about 78% of the domestic gap, and more than 20% of the total is the source of-3.8%.

II. Export ratio increased from 18.6% to 35.2% in two years

More important than absolute quantity is structure.

In 2024, exports accounted for 18.6% of the total sales volume of China car companies; in 2025, it was 20.6%; in July 2026, it surged to 40.4%, 37.2% in August, and a total of 35.2% in the first eight months. The increase has increased by 16.6 percentage points in two years, including 14.6 percentage points this year alone.

A year ago, 1 out of every 5 cars sold was exported; now, 2 out of every 5 cars go overseas.

For those who do exports, the meaning is very direct: overseas markets are no longer incremental options, but basics. An export team is responsible for nearly 40% of sales today, and its budget status and voice are not the same as three years ago.

The other half of structural change lies in power. In August, new energy vehicles exported 526,000 units, accounting for 52.1% of the month's exports, more than half of the three consecutive months; while traditional fuel vehicles exported 485,000 units, accounting for 45.4% of its current sales, and the proportion for new energy is only 32.0%. For factories that are still producing fuel vehicles, the weight of overseas orders is close to that of domestic orders.

3. Whose life is given by the export

Looking at the China Automobile Association's group sales list and the top ten vehicle exports, the proportion of exports from each household in August was: Chery 70.4%(197,000 vehicles were exported out of 280,000 vehicles, and one company accounted for 19.5% of the country's exports); Great Wall and Heavy Duty Truck about 55%; Changan 44.7%, BYD 43.0%, Tesla and Geely 40% to 45%; SAIC 36.8%, BAIC 24.6%, and FAW only 11.9%.

The pattern is quite clear: among the 10 companies, 5 companies had positive year-on-year in August-BYD, Chery, Geely, Tesla, and China Heavy Duty Truck, all accounted for more than 40% of exports; FAW, which had the lowest proportion of exports, fell 21.9% year-on-year.

If exports are deducted, the truth about the leading enterprises in China will be revealed. BYD sold 440,000 vehicles in August, of which 189,000 vehicles were exported, a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times. It is estimated that about 251,000 vehicles were domestically, or about-14% year-on-year; Chery exported 197,000 vehicles in August, and it is estimated that there are only about 83,000 vehicles left in China, or about-on-year.

There is another issue that is easy to ignore: exports in August were 1.01 million vehicles, a month-on-month decrease of 3.2%. The absolute number is still at a high level of one million vehicles, and the month-on-month ratio has turned negative. This ratio is more worthy of being included in the monthly tracking table year-on-year.

4. Three things that must be reminded of

First, the difference between the two accounts is narrowing. Customs statistics customs declaration and exit, and China Automobile Association statistics the export of complete vehicles reported by enterprises. The two accounts have been inconsistent for a long time: in 2025, the customs will have 1.226 million more vehicles than China Automobile Association (a monthly average of 102,000 vehicles), and from January to July 2026, there will be only 259,000 more vehicles (a monthly average of 37,000 vehicles). A considerable part of the difference is used cars and parallel exports that do not go through the channels of car companies. The export of pure electric passenger vehicles will be subject to license management starting from January 1 this year, and the time points coincide. However, the China Automobile Association did not explain. There is currently no public evidence whether there is a cause and effect between the two.

Second, the fourth quarter is a high base. The average monthly export from September to December 2025 was 702,000 units, up from 611,000 units in August last year, and the fourth quarter was already the peak season for shipments. Even if the absolute volume of exports does not fall this year, the year-on-year growth rate will continue to go down. Whoever says that the turning point has reached when the growth rate has dropped is not looking at the base.

Third, the 11 million vehicles for the whole year are extrapolations, not forecasts. That is an arithmetic result calculated linearly according to the rhythm of 1.01 million vehicles per month in August. You can refer to it and not use it as a conclusion.

written in the end

Exports have made up for nearly 80% of the domestic gap, and the remaining 20% will have to wait for the domestic market to stop falling.

In the next four months, the total year-on-year has little reference value. What we need to focus on is two independent lines: whether the domestic decline can narrow from more than 20%, and whether exports can hold on to one million per month after the base is raised.

Source: Xiong Yu, digital automobile export

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