In 2025, parallel imports of new cars from China will reach 71,300, a year-on-year increase of 22%, accounting for more than 40% of all imports from alternative channels...

[Comprehensive News from Moscow] Russia's "parallel imports" of new cars will cool down in 2025. Sergey Tselikov, head of analytical agency Autostat (Автостат), disclosed that Russia will introduce approximately 172,000 new passenger cars through alternative import channels in 2025, a decrease of 5% from 2024. In the context of sanctions and changes in official brand supply, this data was interpreted by Russian media as "the market is adjusting, not simply shrinking." nbsp;

From the perspective of brands, demand is still significantly concentrated towards traditional luxury and Japanese products. Telikov said that Toyota continued to lead the way, importing more than 30,000 vehicles in parallel throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 45%; BMW had approximately 18,000 vehicles, an increase of 35%; and Mercedes-Benz (excluding minibuses) had approximately 10,200 vehicles, an increase of 32%. In contrast, the performance of some China brands in parallel import channels has weakened: Geely's imports fell 29% year-on-year to 17,600 units; Lixiang, which focuses on extended range/hybrid, fell 57%. However, Russian media also mentioned that by the end of 2025, some ideal models have obtained the Russian Model Certification Document (OTTS) and launched official supply. There is also a factor of "channel switching" behind the contraction of parallel imports.

What deserves the attention of China export companies is that China is still an important supply side for Russia's parallel imports. Statistics given by Telikov show that in 2025, parallel imports of new cars from China will reach 71,300, a year-on-year increase of 22%, accounting for more than 40% of all imports from alternative channels. In terms of route, Kyrgyzstan is still the largest transit channel, with more than 30% of the country entering Russia, but the scale has dropped by 24% year-on-year; the decline in Belarus is even greater, with a decrease of 34% compared with the previous year. At the same time, supply from South Korea has increased significantly: parallel imports to Russia have increased to 12,200 vehicles, almost four times the previous year, accounting for 7.2%.

Focusing on the subsequent trend of parallel imports, Russian media has focused on the new "scrapping/recycling fee"(utylsbor) rule that will soon have a more profound impact on costs-this rule places more emphasis on linking engine power. There are differences in the Russian industry regarding the market direction: Telikov predicts that the cost impact on models with more than 160 horsepower will cause "drastic changes" in the import structure, with high-power and more luxurious models bearing the brunt; Za Rulem and other media quoted car commentator Maxim Kadakov (Maxim Kadakov) believes that the total volume may not fall significantly, and importers may switch to lower-power versions to maintain transactions; while automotive industry organizer Anton Shaparin is more pessimistic, believing that buyers of high-end cars and SUVs are usually unwilling to compromise on "low power allocation", and demand may be directly lost, leading to a more obvious decline.

[Brief Comment] For China's automobile export practitioners, the signal that Russia's parallel imports "has dropped slightly and the structure has changed significantly" deserves more attention. A more prudent strategy may be to transfer hot-selling models to a sustainable official certification and formal supply system as soon as possible, and prepare in advance the power version and configuration combination that adapt to Russian tax rules, leaving uncertainty on the enterprise side. Instead of leaving it to the terminal price.

Source: Guangdong Good Car

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