1. Core data perspectives

In 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises will grow throughout the year, reversing the downward trend for three consecutive years. Among them, new driving forces such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing have obvious supporting roles. The profit structure of traditional industries will continue to be optimized, and the quality and efficiency of industrial economic development will continue to improve. From January to December 2025, automobile production was 34.78 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10%. From January to December 2025, the revenue of the automobile industry was 1.1796 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%; the cost was 9.8498 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1%; the profit was 461 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%; the profit margin of the automobile industry was 4.1%, which was still low compared with the average profit margin of downstream industrial enterprises of 5.9%. Among them, the automobile industry's revenue in December was 1.1573 billion yuan, down 0.8% year-on-year; costs were 1.0093 billion yuan, up 0.8%; profits were 20.7 billion yuan, down 57.4% year-on-year; the automobile industry's profit margin was 1.8%, a significant decrease from November, and a significant decrease from December last year's 4.1%. At the end of 2025, accounts receivable from industrial enterprises above designated size were 27.43 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.7% from the end of the previous year; finished goods inventories were 6.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.9%. The automobile industry's destocking and improved accounting periods should be better than the overall level of industrial enterprises.

In 2025, all localities will make great efforts to promote the implementation of the "two new" policies, effectively releasing the vitality of domestic demand. The policy of replacing old goods with new ones has a significant effect on expanding the market, but the improvement of efficiency in the automobile industry is significantly behind that of other consumer goods. As the country's anti-corruption work continues to advance, the profit margin of non-ferrous metals mining is 29.4%, the profits of the upstream steel industry have improved significantly, and the automobile industry has increased costs and improved the profits of the industrial chain. It is expected that the automobile market will have the same power to promote the same power of oil and electricity. In the future, the overall situation of the automobile industry will continue to be stable and improving.

Judging from the trend of sales profit margins over the years, the profit performance of the automobile industry in 2024 has been weak, with sales profit margin only 4.3%, a significant drop from the historical normal level; from January to December 2025, the industry's sales profit margin further dropped to 4.1%, still At historical lows, of which the profit margin of 1.8% in December hit a recent low, and downward pressure on earnings continues to be highlighted.

Since the production and sales of the automobile industry are basically the same, the statistical standards are consistent, and the gap between production and sales is not large, we use the output of the National Bureau of Statistics to calculate the economic indicators of single bicycles.

1-12 In the month, overall industrial enterprises were under great pressure to increase unit costs. The price of lithium carbonate has doubled, commodity prices have remained high, and the pressure on raw material costs in the middle and lower reaches has increased. 1-12 In the month, the overall bicycle income of the automobile industry chain was 321,000 yuan (with double counting of the industrial chain), which dropped by 16,000 yuan, the cost of bicycles dropped by 13,000 yuan, and the gross profit of bicycles in the industrial chain was 13,000 yuan.

2. Specific analysis

1. Income and profit structure of various economies

In 2025, industrial enterprises above designated size will achieve operating income of 139.20 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.1% over the previous year; operating costs will be 118.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.3%; operating income profit margin will be 5.31%, down 0.03 percentage points from the previous year.

Revenue growth in the overall industrial sector has been stable this year, and profit performance has been relatively average. Among them, the income and profits of state-owned enterprises have fluctuated greatly in recent years. The performance of mining companies has declined and profit growth has been low.

Note: Interpretation of basic data The growth rates of total profits, operating income and other indicators of industrial enterprises above designated size are calculated on a comparable basis. There are incomparability factors between the data for the reporting period and the data for the same indicator released in the previous year, and the growth rate cannot be directly compared to calculate. The main reasons are as follows: (1) According to the statistical system, the survey scope of industrial enterprises above designated size is adjusted regularly every year. Every year, some enterprises meet the scale standard and are included in the survey, some enterprises withdraw from the survey due to their smaller scale, and there are also changes such as newly established enterprises put into operation, bankrupt enterprises, and registered (listed) sales enterprises. (2) Strengthen statistical law enforcement, clean up enterprises found during statistical law enforcement inspections that do not meet the statistical requirements of industries above designated size, and revise relevant bases in accordance with regulations. (3) Strengthen data quality management and eliminate duplicate statistical data across regions and industries. According to the latest enterprise organizational structure survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics, starting from the fourth quarter of 2017, double counting of enterprise groups (companies) across regions and industries has been eliminated. (4) After the implementation of the "business tax to value-added" policy, service industry enterprises changed to pay value-added tax and the tax rate was lower. Industrial enterprises gradually divested their internal non-industrial production and operation activities and shifted to the service industry, resulting in a decrease in the financial data of industrial enterprises. (5) Based on the results of the comprehensive inventory of units in the fourth national economic census, verification and adjustment were carried out on the survey units of industrial enterprises above designated size.

2. Changes in revenue and profit structure

At present, state-owned enterprises are performing very well, with the proportion of revenue and profits continuing to grow, with profits accounting for 28%. The sales profit margin of private enterprises is at a relatively low level of 4.5%, and the profits of joint-stock enterprises have declined significantly.

Among the profit margin indicators of operating income, the main indicators of state-owned enterprises such as mining and coal, hydropower are higher, while the profit margins of private enterprises are very poor. The profit margin of manufacturing industry accounts for 77%, which has improved slightly in the near future.

3. Specific industry analysis

1. Profit differentiation in the mining industry

With the high base and low prices from January to December 2025, mining profits will still have good profits when a 26% drop in mining profits. The mining industry's profit margin at 15.9% from January to December is also very good.

From January to December 2025, the oil industry has the highest profits, and the recent profit margin of the oil industry has increased amazingly. Overall mining industry profits remained high. Profits in the non-ferrous industries have soared, but profits in the coal and iron ore industries have been low.

2. Profits in the water, electricity and gas industry continue to surge sharply

Electric heating, air and water is a high-profit service industry with a profit margin of 6.8% in 2025. Profits in the power industry are at historically high levels, with profits in the water treatment industry falling by 8%, profits in the gas industry falling by 13% in 2025, and profits in electricity rising by 14% in 2025.

3. Improved upstream profits

In 2025, both sales revenue and profits of the upstream industry will see high growth, especially the profit margin will rebound to 2.8%. Among them, the sales profit margin represented by steel rolling has gradually stabilized, improving from a huge loss at the beginning of last year to a profit of 109.8 billion yuan this year. Profits in industries such as chemical raw materials and non-ferrous metal smelting are relatively good.

4. Midstream profits perform well

From January to December 2025, sales revenue and profits of the midstream industry will grow well. The sales profit margin of the midstream industry dropped from 6.0% in 2016 to 5% in 2025, and has stabilized recently. In 2025, the sales profit margins of major midstream industries will also decline, shipbuilding and railways will benefit well, and the profits of waste material utilization and non-metallic mineral products industry will increase significantly.

5. Downstream profits gradually improve

From January to December 2025, the overall downstream industrial profits increased by 3%, while the automobile industry profits increased by 1%, with a profit margin of 4.1%, which is still lower than the overall downstream profit level of 5.9%, and significantly lower than other downstream companies such as tobacco, alcohol, and pharmaceuticals.

At present, the tobacco, alcohol, and pharmaceutical industries are mainly high profits. The profits of the alcohol industry are significantly higher than other industries, and the profits of the pharmaceutical industry have also maintained a good growth trend. The profits of the computer, communications and electronics industry are not strong, but they have also increased significantly year-on-year.

4. Analysis of the automobile industry

1. The scale of the automobile industry continues to expand

In 2022, automobile production will be 27.48 million units, with output increasing by 3% year-on-year; new energy vehicle production will be 7.22 million units, an increase of 98%, and a penetration rate of 26%; fuel vehicle production will be 20.26 million units, a decrease of 11%.

In 2023, 30.11 million vehicles were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 9%; 9.44 million new energy vehicles were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 30% and a penetration rate of 31%; 20.67 million fuel vehicles were produced, with an increase of 2%.

In 2024, the automobile production was 31.56 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 5%; the production of new energy vehicles was 13.17 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 39%, with a penetration rate of 42%; and the production of fuel vehicles was 18.39 million units, down 11%.

In December 2025, 3.41 million vehicles were produced, down 3% year-on-year; 1.79 million new energy vehicles were produced, up 9% year-on-year, with penetration rate of 52%; 1.62 million fuel vehicles were produced, down 13% year-on-year.

From January to December 2025, the automobile production was 34.78 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 10%; the production of new energy vehicles was 16.52 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 25% and a penetration rate of 48%; and the production of fuel vehicles was 18.25 million units, down 1% year-on-year.

2. The automobile industry is under great pressure on efficiency

From January to December 2025, automobile production was 34.78 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10%. From January to December 2025, the revenue of the automobile industry was 1.1796 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%; the cost was 9.8498 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1%; the profit was 461 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%; the profit margin of the automobile industry was 4.1%, which was still low compared with the average profit margin of downstream industrial enterprises of 5.9%. Among them, the automobile industry's revenue in December was 1.1573 billion yuan, down 0.8% year-on-year; costs were 1.0093 billion yuan, up 0.8%; profits were 20.7 billion yuan, down 57.4% year-on-year; the automobile industry's profit margin was 1.8%, a significant decrease from November, and a significant decrease from December last year's 4.1% drop.

Recently, as the production scale of the automobile market has expanded, PPI has increased, upstream lithium carbonate costs have increased, the problem of automobile companies not making batteries is serious, and the profits of automobile companies can continue to decline.

Combined with the downward trend of profit margins in previous years, the recent decline in profits in the automobile industry is still relatively large. Due to the obvious advantages of new energy policies under policy support, the profit pressure of mainstream automobile companies will continue to increase sharply due to the fact that batteries are not built. As the national anti-corruption work continues to advance, the promotion effect on improving industry profits will gradually improve.

Source: Cui Dongshu

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