Russia's "Dubai Car Source" craze recedes: The situation in the Middle East may cause a brief shutdown

Russia's import of passenger cars from United Arab Emirates rose sharply in 2025, about three times higher than that in 2024. However, this channel cooled significantly in 2026. In January, Russia imported only 335 passenger cars from United Arab Emirates...

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[Moscow News] According to data disclosed by Sergey Tselikov, head of Russian auto analysis agency Autostat, in Telegram, the scale of Russian imports of passenger cars from the United Arab Emirates has increased significantly in 2025, reaching 10,500 vehicles throughout the year, an increase of about three times compared with 2024. Among them, there are 2,200 new cars and 8,300 second-hand cars. Second-hand cars are still the main form of "Dubai Car Sources" entering Russia.

In terms of brand structure, the top rankings in new car imports are RAM (33%), Toyota (21%) and Mitsubishi (17%). In the used car sector, Toyota's advantage is more obvious: Telikov said that 51% of used car imports are Toyota. Also entering the top five include Nissan (19%), Mitsubishi (7%), Honda and Lexus (4% each).

In terms of model models, the most popular cars entering Russia from the United Arab Emirates in 2025 are: Toyota Land Cruiser Prado (1052), Toyota Harrier (1007), Nissan Note (978) and Mitsubishi Outlander (521). It is not difficult to see from the list that the Russian market still has stable demand for Japanese SUVs that are "durable, value-preserving, and adaptable to multiple road conditions," while the United Arab Emirates, as a transit and vehicle source distribution center, provides relatively operable supply paths for such models.

However, entering 2026, this channel will significantly cool down. Telikov also revealed that in January 2026, Russia imported only 335 passenger cars from the United Arab Emirates, a "significant decline" in scale. He further judged that against the background of the warming up situation in the Middle East, supplies from the United Arab Emirates to Russia "may temporarily stop completely."

[Brief Comment] For China's automobile exporters, the rise and fall of vehicle sources in the United Arab Emirates essentially shows that Russia relies heavily on "third-country channels," but such channels are also the most fragile, affected by both geographical conflicts and fluctuations in shipping and insurance costs. In the short term, the contraction of channels in the United Arab Emirates will push up the scarcity premium of some popular Japanese models in Russia, leaving some room for substitution in the new car market.

Source: Guangdong Good Car

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