Since March, the butterfly effect caused by the situation in the Middle East on all aspects of the global economy has continued to be released, pushing up energy prices, disrupting supply chains, and raising inflation expectations. Affected by this, second-hand electric vehicles that are not afraid of oil price anxiety, are more cost-effective and are delivered quickly have gained unexpected dividends in Europe, and sales have increased significantly recently. So, has this wave of butterfly effect been transmitted to my country's used car market and what impact has it had?

Monthly normal fluctuations and quarterly stability

In the first quarter of this year, a number of car companies launched a seven-year low-interest car purchase plan to lower the threshold for new car purchase, objectively increased the promotion of the new car market, and robbed some potential consumers of used cars. In addition, the Spring Festival holiday caused a seasonal decline in used car trading activity and weak consumer demand.

The latest data from China Automobile Dealers Association shows that in March, the transaction volume of the national used car market was 1.7918 million units, a month-on-month increase of 37.73%, a year-on-year increase of 2.11%, and the transaction amount was 117.868 billion yuan. From January to March, the cumulative transaction volume of used cars was 4.822 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.66%, and the cumulative transaction amount was 312.882 billion yuan. Among them, a total of 3.7125 million passenger cars were traded, a year-on-year increase of 0.88%. Judging from the trend of the used car managers index, it was 45.5% in March, a month-on-month increase of 3.7 percentage points, but a year-on-year decrease of 2.7 percentage points. Compared with the market's recovery in February, consumer demand continues to be released.

In addition, from the perspective of wholesale prices, the used car market has shown rare resilience. The Youcha 30 Used Car Batch Sales Index (hereinafter referred to as the "Youcha 30 Index"), which aims to dynamically reflect the price trend of the used car wholesale market in China, recorded 84 points in March 2026. This is the third consecutive month in 2026 that the index has stabilized above the important level of 80 points, forming a clear trend of a solid start in the first quarter of 2026.

Looking back at 2025, the price trend reflected in this index has been operating below 80 points for eight consecutive months. Entering 2026, the steady performance in the first quarter not only reflects the consolidation of the market bottom, but also the improvement of cross-regional circulation efficiency of vehicle sources, which sends a signal that market confidence has been consolidated.

From the perspective of brand countries, the prices of used cars of self-owned brands continued to remain strong, up 13.7% year-on-year, ranking first among used cars of brands in various countries, showing the continued improvement of market recognition and value-preserving capabilities. German brands showed strong resilience to value preservation with a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, while Japanese brands rose 5%. In contrast, the price of Korean brands fell by 12.6% year-on-year, while American and French brands also declined to varying degrees.

According to data from the Passenger Federation Branch of China Automobile Dealers Association, in March, the number of used cars on the online market reached 719,200, a month-on-month increase of 27.8%. Wang Meng, deputy secretary-general of the Beijing City Automobile Circulation Industry Association, said that at present, the driving force for the surge in the stock of vehicles in the used car market is mainly from fuel vehicles. The collection and sales cycle of new energy used vehicles is accelerating, and there is even a trend that local supply exceeds demand. However, the demand for fuel vehicles, especially for models with a displacement of more than 2.0 liters, is obviously insufficient.

He judged that in the second quarter, new car sales in 4S stores will pick up significantly, and at the same time drive a large number of replacement vehicles to enter the used car market. Throughout the year, the domestic automobile market will maintain stable operation, international exports will maintain rapid growth, and domestic stability and international growth are the core features. "There is no problem in the current used car market, but the premise is that the overall oil price will not fluctuate more significantly, otherwise it may cause major changes in the overall structure of the market." Wang Meng said.

The first quarter has passed, and Guazi Used Car is cautiously optimistic about the prosperity of the used car market this year. The reason is that the high international oil price and the continued release of policy dividends are expected to further activate replacement demand. However, consumers 'sensitivity to prices has increased, and the platform has put forward higher requirements for service capabilities and pricing transparency.

The volume and price of new energy are rising, and the competition for vehicle sources is becoming increasingly fierce

European Commission data shows that from February 23 to March 16 this year, the average oil price in EU countries has increased by 12% to 1.84 euros per liter. Sales of used electric vehicles have increased more significantly because they are priced at up to 40% cheaper than new cars and can be delivered almost immediately.

Data from Swedish online sales platform Blocket shows that in the first two weeks of March this year, sales of used electric vehicles increased by 11% compared with the previous two weeks, and page views increased by 17%. Data from mobile.de, Germany's largest online car trading platform, shows that since early March, the proportion of electric vehicles in user searches on this site has increased from 12% to 36%. Data from Aramisauto, France's major online used car retailer, shows that starting from the second week of March, the proportion of used electric vehicles among all sold models on the platform has increased from 6.5% three weeks ago to 12.7%. At the same time, the proportion of gasoline vehicles sold on the platform has decreased from 34% to 28%, and the proportion of diesel vehicles has decreased from 14% to 10%.

Compared with the sudden start of trading volume of new energy used cars in the European market, the growth of trading volume in the domestic market is more based on the endogenous power of the market. Data shows that the trading scale of new energy used vehicles in my country has shown high growth last year, with a total of 1.61 million vehicles traded, a year-on-year increase of 43%. In the first two months of this year, the cumulative transaction volume of new energy used vehicles was 265,000, a year-on-year increase of nearly 40%.

In March, consumer demand for new energy used cars increased. Cai Bo, co-founder and chief operating officer of Cheduo, told the reporter of China Auto News that especially since March, due to fuel safety concerns caused by the turmoil in the international situation and adjustments to the global energy landscape, the number of customers who have come to the store to consult new energy used cars has increased significantly, and the transaction volume has also increased significantly, which has driven transaction prices to continue to rise. In terms of wholesale prices, the Car 30 Index showed that the transaction price of used cars of domestic brand new energy vehicle index models rose by 27% in March.

Wang Meng introduced that the supply and demand relationship of domestic new energy used cars is undergoing subtle changes, with the volume of consultations, store arrivals, and transaction volume significantly increasing. Many car dealers feel that competition for used car purchase prices is fierce, intermediate profits are reduced, and even vicious competition appears in some markets. These changes have increased the pressure on traditional used car dealers to accelerate the transformation of new energy, requiring them to invest more money and open up multiple car collection channels.

Data from the Guazi Used Car Platform shows that the overall market in March this year was in line with the previous year's pattern of recovery after the Spring Festival. The transaction volume increased significantly from the month-on-month in February and also increased from January. However, structural changes have taken place in subdivided energy types. Guazi used car data shows that in the first quarter, the supply and demand of new energy used cars on the platform increased simultaneously; however, in the field of used fuel vehicles, sellers 'supply surged in March, and buyers' demand shrank. Fuel car owners have increased their willingness to sell, but buyers 'enthusiasm has declined. Amid this change in supply and demand, the most troubling thing for fuel car owners is that their cars cannot be sold at a high price.

Keep a close eye on market variables and don't blindly advance and withdraw cars

This year, the national "old-for-new" subsidy policy continues to be exerted, and some places have successively introduced special subsidies for new energy used vehicles. These policies have reduced the comprehensive cost of replacing vehicles for consumers and further stimulated the replacement demand for oil-for-electricity. For example, the Xi'an City Bureau of Commerce issued a notice on the "2026 Xi'an Used Car Consumption Subsidy Activity." Anyone who purchases cars from January 19, 2026 (inclusive) to December 31, 2026 (subject to the motor vehicle invoice), and who purchases second-hand passenger cars from participating companies can enjoy car purchase subsidies based on the amount of the car purchase invoices, and the activity ends when the subsidy funds are exhausted. When consumers purchase second-hand passenger cars, the government subsidizes 1.5% of the price of the car (up to a maximum of 4000 yuan), which is based on the total price in the unified invoice for second-hand car sales (excluding other expenses such as vehicle decoration and listing).

"Recently, our feeling is that there is a mismatch between supply and demand of car sources. Since used cars are one car, it is difficult for the car sources in our hands to fully match the needs of customers. However, in the face of high-quality car sources, I don't dare to bid too much when collecting cars, because we must pay attention to controlling risks and leaving profit margins." When talking about the current difficulties in operating new energy used vehicles, Cai Bo said.

According to the industry information of the Guazi used car platform, it can be found that car dealers are now more flexible in price adjustment strategies than before, and are more cautious when purchasing fuel-fueled used cars, while attention to new energy used cars is increasing.

Guazi Used Car believes that a significant trend in the current market is that a large number of fuel car owners are in the window period of energy replacement. However, before purchasing new or second-hand new energy models, how to dispose of existing fuel vehicles efficiently and at a high price is the core demand of users. Among them, failure to sell at a high price is a common pain point in the used car market.

In the traditional offline trading chain, the vehicle source flows from the seller to the terminal buyer, often passing through two to three levels of dealers. Since dealers need to reserve profit margins and dilute turnover costs, each level of circulation means further squeezing the purchase price. If this inefficient circulation structure can be broken and the premium can be returned to car owners, the seller's income will be greatly increased.

However, Wang Meng reminded that although the sales momentum of new energy used cars is good, used car dealers should also be wary of potential market variables-based on past experience, it is expected that there will be about 1.5 million "zero-kilometer used cars" whose exports have been rejected this year. Returning to the domestic market, of which more than 900,000 are new energy vehicles, may promote a new round of price "inward".

He revealed that recently, the average port price of new cars, especially new energy models, previously "hoarded" in many ports, has dropped from US$80,000 before the Spring Festival to US$71,000. The space for speculation has been further compressed and the market has gradually returned to rationality.

International oil prices fluctuate and practice internal strength is the key way

"The factors that really drive the new energy used car market include: first, policies such as trade-in, second, the cost-effective depression formed by the 'in-rolling' of new cars, resulting in 'backstabbing of used cars'. Third, the improvement of charging infrastructure and consumers 'acceptance of trams continues to increase. Be wary of betting all the explosion in new energy vehicle sales on oil prices." Wang Meng reminded. "The structural contradiction of rising volume and falling price will continue, and car dealers must learn to operate refined operations in this environment. In addition, the elimination of used car operators is even more cruel. When companies reach the stage of seeking quality inward, they must grasp brand positioning, strategic direction, cost control, and human efficiency, flat efficiency, and capital efficiency. Overall, new car prices, intelligence levels, industry competition, and overall willingness to consume have all led to very large fluctuations in the current market changes. Companies need to pay attention to and evaluate the impact of the 'Black Swan' and 'Gray Rhinoceros' incidents in a timely manner."

Wang Meng believes that under the current situation, it is not easy for used car companies to expand rapidly, but should proceed step by step. As the cost of trial and error caused by mistakes in decision-making increases, the risk of financial pressure on enterprises increases, various problems and risks of automobile dealer groups will also be transmitted to the used car market, causing market fluctuations.

He suggested that at present, car dealers must pay close attention to the dynamics of new cars when collecting vehicles, especially replacement and inventory clearance models. The collection price should be based on the terminal price of the new car rather than the guidance price. When collecting and selling vehicles, they should continue the strategy of "fast-in and fast-out". The inventory of new energy vehicles must be controlled within 15 to 30 days, and prices must be decisively reduced and cleared after 45 days. Car dealers should formulate differentiated pricing based on model, age, and battery health-high-quality car sources can compete for appropriate price increases, while low-quality car sources would rather give up than take risks.

In addition, car dealers should also pay attention to the impact of financial policies when selling new cars. For example, Tesla's "5-year zero interest rate" or "7-year ultra-low interest rate" financial plan has a direct price impact on used cars. Some large second-hand car dealers have followed suit and joined forces with local banks to launch a purchase policy with a loan amount of 100,000 yuan and 12 interest-free periods. Some car dealers sold 3 cars in 5 days, and the effect was relatively obvious. However, small and medium-sized car dealers can only choose to reduce prices. For example, a car dealer has 7 second-hand Tesla Model Y cars. As soon as the financial plan was released, the market price dropped instantly. In the end, the bicycles were reduced by at least 5000 yuan before all were sold out, causing a certain loss.

Cai Bo said that today, consumers 'concerns about purchasing used new energy cars are still focused on residual value and battery health. Car dealers should provide true and detailed vehicle condition reports when selling, with transparency of vehicle conditions as the core to provide consumers with confidence in purchasing cars. Guarantee.

Exports are temporarily blocked but are in danger

Data from China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that in the first quarter of 2026, China's automobile exports were 2.226 million units, a year-on-year increase of 56.7%. Among them, the export of fuel vehicles increased by 29.9% year-on-year, and the export of new energy vehicles was 954,000, a year-on-year increase of 120%, and the growth rate was four times that of fuel vehicles.

Although this year's used car export data has not yet been released, Cai Bo believes that the export of new energy used cars has ushered in a period of opportunity, and after this round of surge in oil prices, many countries will be deeply aware of energy security issues and provide certain guidance. Energy used car exports are promising in the future. At the same time, he also admitted that the "Notice on Further Strengthening the Management of Used Car Export" jointly issued by the Ministry of Commerce and other four departments was officially implemented in January this year. Since "vehicles registered for less than 180 days are strictly restricted from being exported in the name of used cars.", the business volume of some used car exporters has declined significantly this year.

Some exporters told reporters that due to the impact of the above-mentioned new policies, the company's second-hand car exports fell by 40% in the first quarter. This year's sudden conflict in the Middle East has had a very great impact on international logistics, and the number of overseas customers stopping and refunds orders has increased significantly.

Liao Zhiyong, general manager of Guangdong Good Car Holdings Co., Ltd., introduced that my country's key used car export markets are mainly in Russia, Central Asia, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America. Among them, the Middle East and Africa will be affected to a certain extent in the short term. High oil prices have promoted sales of new energy vehicles, and the share of used new energy vehicles has also increased significantly. At the same time, the export of parallel export vehicles and modified vehicles will gradually be concentrated in the hands of some channel merchants with main engine factory resources. my country's export volume of long-kilometer used cars is expected to increase significantly this year. Used car dealers and trading markets that used to mainly focus on the domestic market will also be more active in developing export business.

Wang Meng believes that the impact of rising international oil prices on my country's used car exports should be viewed rationally. Although conflicts in the Middle East have continued recently, China's automobile exports to the Middle East have achieved steady growth relying on regional market dividends. The conflict between the United States and Iran is complex. The obstruction of logistics in the Strait of Hormuz has brought short-term cost increases, but it is difficult to shake the core advantages of China's supply chain. Specifically, when it comes to the export of used cars, there is still strong demand in Russia, Central Asia, and Africa recently, with export profits remaining at around 15%. Although foreign media reported that European consumers are gradually favoring second-hand electric vehicles, for China exporters, the European market is restricted by factors such as certification barriers, logistics costs, and brand awareness, and will not become the main exporter in the short term. Therefore, it is still difficult to enjoy this wave of dividends and deeply cultivate advantageous markets.

Source: China Automobile News

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