Bottom line: Domestic streets are rotten and overseas are rushing for it; policy + price difference + mismatch between supply and demand, the triple superposition directly blows up the market.

1. Domestic: To the extreme, you must go to sea

The price war breaks through the bottom: new cars are shopping, and used cars are falling. Three-year-old new energy vehicles have a low value preservation rate and a flood of inventories: the domestic new energy reserves are 120 million +, which are replaced in large quantities every year, and high-quality second-hand trams with 2 - 5 years old, low mileage, and good condition are piled up.→ Going to sea is the only way out for used car dealers.

2. Overseas: There is a global shortage of trams, and China is the only supplier

Emerging markets are just in need (Southeast Asia/Africa/Latin America) Southeast Asia: New cars are expensive, Japanese supply is insufficient, 50,000 - 120,000 second-hand trams are being rushed, and Q1 will account for 75% of China's second-hand new energy vehicle exports in 2026. Africa: There are only 40 cars per 1,000 people (226 in China). Ethiopia bans fuel vehicles and allows second-hand trams from China. South America: Tariffs are low, and China cars account for 80% of imports. Europe: Soaring oil prices + carbon policies, the price of second-hand electric cars has just exceeded 2 euros/liter, and sales of second-hand electric vehicles have doubled. EU carbon tariffs force electrification, but local trams are expensive and lack production capacity. Second-hand trams in China are 40% cheaper and have higher configurations. Russia/Central Asia: Market vacuum European, American, Japanese and Korean car companies withdraw, China cars monopolize the market

3. China products: There is no substitute for dimension reduction

Cost performance: It is 40% cheaper than second-hand trams in Japan and South Korea in the same class, and has stronger battery life/intelligent configuration. High-quality car condition: Domestic cars of 2 - 3 years old, 30,000 - 50,000 kilometers, battery attenuation is 15%, much newer than old overseas trams. The third power company is mature: BYD blade batteries and Ningde era batteries are still reliable after 5 years, and overseas brands cannot do it.

4. Policy: Give the green light in both directions and ignite directly

Domestic: The export of used cars has shifted from a pilot to an application system, and the qualification threshold has been greatly lowered. Overseas: Multi-country zero tariffs/low tariffs + quotas (Argentina, Southeast Asia). EU carbon tariffs, Africa bans fuel vehicles, policies force the replacement of tram cars

5. 2026 New Deal: More explosive after reshuffle

Starting from January 2026: Vehicles registered for less than 180 days will be strictly controlled for export, and "zero-kilometer used cars" will be withdrawn. Short-term: small businesses are eliminated; long-term: real second-hand tram exports become mainstream, becoming more stable, larger and more lasting.

Summary: Why now?

Domestic: Overcapacity, price collapse, mountains of inventories → must be sold. Overseas: electrification is in urgent need, insufficient supply, and extremely high prices → rushing to buy China cars. Products: Cheap, new, durable, smart, unique in the world. Policy: Two-way dividends at home and abroad will turn "arbitrage" into "super outlet". This is not a short-term boom, but a structural big market in the next 5 - 10 years.

Source: Xiong Yu, digital automobile export

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