The domestic new energy market is developing rapidly, the penetration rate of pure tram models is approaching 50%, charging piles in communities can be seen everywhere, and the green card policy continues to be supported. Many practitioners and consumers naturally form an inherent judgment: pure electric is the only end point of the global automobile transformation, and fuel vehicles and hybrid models will soon be completely eliminated. However, after opening the IEA, circulation data of global automobile companies, and real consumption research on overseas terminals, you will find that this set of domestic logic will completely fail in the global market.

In the global new car market, the overall penetration rate of pure electric vehicles is only 28%, and more than 70% of new cars are still fuel and hybrid models. Consumer demand in different regions is greatly divided. For second-hand car exporters, overseas car dealers, and cross-border car buyers, a single bet on pure tram models is equivalent to ignoring more than 70% of the real overseas market dividends.

1. The global market is severely divided, and pure electricity is limited to a few regions

Many people are accustomed to using the domestic market to deduce the world. By default, all countries will quickly popularize pure electric cars. However, real regional data shows a clear hierarchical pattern, and pure electric models only have mainstream competitiveness in specific developed regions.

Northern Europe is the global ceiling for pure electricity penetration. The proportion of new energy vehicles in Norway exceeds 80%. The complete fast charging network, long-term stable duty-free car purchase, and full-coverage energy replenishment stations on highways, combined with low water and electricity prices, has built a perfect foundation for the popularization of pure electricity. The soil, local consumers have almost no anxiety about battery life and energy replenishment during daily commuting and long-distance travel, so pure electricity naturally becomes the first choice. The penetration rate of new energy in Western Europe, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and other countries remains in the range of 25%-32%, but the internal differences are huge. The sales of pure electricity in the core areas of cities are considerable. Fuel vehicles are still the main ones in the urban-rural fringe and remote villages. Charging piles The distribution is uneven, and the vehicle-to-pile ratio in township areas generally exceeds 14:1, which restricts the popularization of pure electricity.

The North American market presents diametrically opposed characteristics. The proportion of new vehicles in the United States is as high as 68%, and the penetration rate of pure tram models is less than 10%. The urban layout is extremely scattered, long-distance commuting is the norm, the cost of renovating circuits in old communities is high, and the process of installing private charging piles in most single-family houses is cumbersome and expensive. Coupled with the high global electricity prices outside Europe, the cost advantage of pure trams for full-cycle vehicles has been greatly reduced, and local consumers are more willing to choose gasoline-electric hybrid models that have no worries about replenishing energy.

Markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa, which cover 60% of the world's population, are the core incremental markets for the circulation of new and used cars around the world. Fuel and hybrid models in these regions have long accounted for more than 90% of the total. The power grids of many countries in Southeast Asia are underloaded, and there are almost no public fast charging outside cities. The high temperature climate in the Middle East will greatly reduce battery life. The power supply in many countries in Africa is unstable. The simple promotion of pure electric vehicles is completely divorced from the current situation of local basic supporting facilities.

This regional differentiation is not a temporary phenomenon caused by short-term policies, but a stable pattern formed by long-term accumulation of geographical layout, energy structure, and infrastructure levels. There is no possibility of pure electricity dominating the global market in the short term. For the used car industry, only exporting pure trams in bulk will directly lose the large-scale overseas circulation tracks in North America, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.

2. The triple shackles of infrastructure, energy and cost have trapped the global popularization of pure electricity

The rapid rise of domestic pure electricity is supported by a complete supporting system: full coverage of the national power grid, standard charging piles in high-speed service areas, stable and low civil electricity prices, preferential policies for car purchases for many years, and multiple dividends are superimposed to amplify the advantages of pure electricity. However, this support system cannot be replicated in the vast majority of overseas markets, and it is also a core underlying constraint that makes it difficult for pure electricity to be fully rolled out.

The charging infrastructure divide is the most intuitive obstacle. 70% of Europe's power grid facilities have been in service for more than 50 years, and their expansion and transformation require huge investment. Some countries in Southeast Europe have only 1.2 charging piles per 100 kilometers; the total number of public charging piles in the United States is far from reaching the market demand target, and 70% of potential car buyers are due to charging problems. Give up the pure tram option. Problems in developing markets are even more prominent. Villages and towns in Indonesia, Vietnam, and Africa do not have stable power supply. Large-scale laying of charging networks requires several years of infrastructure construction, and the hardware conditions for popularizing pure electricity are not available in the short term.

Energy prices reverse the advantages of pure electric vehicles. Electricity prices continued to rise after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in Europe. The electricity price for German residents was equivalent to RMB 2-3 yuan per kilowatt-hour. The gap between charging costs and refueling under the same mileage has been greatly narrowed, and the core advantage of pure streetcars in saving money no longer exists. Gasoline prices in the Middle East and North America have been at low levels for a long time. After consumers calculate the total cost of vehicles for ten years, hybrid and fuel models are more cost-effective. The cost of battery replacement cannot be ignored. Overseas power battery repair and replacement prices far exceed those of domestic ones. In the circulation of used cars, the discount loss caused by the decay of old pure tram batteries is much higher than that of fuel and hybrid models.

Acquisition costs and consumption structure further compress the living space of pure electricity. Consumers in Southeast Asia and Latin America have generally low car purchase budgets. The price of pure trams of the same class is more than 30% higher than that of fuel cars. Ordinary users only have a car holding cycle of 3-5 years, and they cannot rely on the fuel price difference to recover the car purchase premium. At the same time, electric vehicle subsidies in many countries continued to decline. Germany and Sweden canceled car purchase subsidies in advance. After the policy dividends disappeared, the price competitiveness of pure electric models further declined. The combination of multiple practical factors determines that pure electricity can only be used as a subdivision choice and cannot adapt to the budgets and usage scenarios of the vast majority of ordinary overseas consumers.

3. Hybrid and fuel equally divide overseas demand, and diversified driving forces are the mainstream of the market

Putting aside the inherent thinking of "the ultimate route of pure electricity", overseas consumers 'car purchase choices are highly pragmatic. The track is clearly divided according to their own travel scenarios, living conditions, and budgets. Petrol-electric hybrids and traditional fuel vehicles respectively occupy stable market shares, forming a pure electricity. A three-pronged pattern of electricity, hybrid and fuel.

Petrol-electric hybrid HEV is a much-needed model in the global transition market and the category with the most growth potential for used car exports. These models do not require charging and have greatly reduced fuel consumption, which perfectly solves the pain points of energy replenishment in areas with insufficient infrastructure. Sales of hybrid models in the U.S. market in 2026 will increase by 33% year-on-year, with Japanese hybrid models accounting for more than 45%. Surveys in Southeast Asia, Singapore and Thailand show that more than 30% of car buyers prefer hybrid models, and the circulation speed of hybrid used cars by local dealers is much higher than that of pure trams. For overseas families with high temperatures, frequent long-distance travel, and lack of housing conditions, hybrid is the best compromise solution that combines fuel efficiency and convenience.

Traditional fuel vehicles are still just needed in the tool attribute market. A large number of consumers in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America use vehicles as production tools. Pickups and hard-core SUVs need to carry cargo and carry long-distance off-road. Under the high temperature, dust, and uneven oil conditions, internal combustion engine technology is mature, maintenance outlets are everywhere, and accessories are cheap. Battery models cannot withstand extreme working conditions. In the local used car circulation market, fuel vehicles with stable vehicle conditions and simple maintenance occupy the main force of traffic all year round, and the circulation turnover efficiency is much higher than that of pure electric used cars.

Pure electric models only target a fixed segment of the population: high-budget consumers who commute for short distances in cities, have private parking spaces and pay attention to preferential environmental protection policies. A single power route cannot cover all overseas demand. Overseas car dealers generally adopt the inventory matching logic of "fuel volume, hybrid profit, and pure electricity for high-end segmentation". This is also a business idea that domestic used cars must refer to when going abroad.

4. Breaking the inherent perception, the long-term way for used cars to go out to adapt to diverse powers is to go out to sea

For a long time, domestic industry public opinion has over-amplified the advantages of pure electricity, which has easily caused cross-border used car practitioners to fall into a cognitive misunderstanding, believing that pure trams are the only outlet to sea. Combined with the real global market demand, the industry needs to think beyond a single track and establish a global and diverse vehicle layout idea.

First of all, we must establish regional differentiated product selection logic. For customers in core cities in Northern Europe and Western Europe, we can focus on the layout of pure electric used cars with solid battery life and complete intelligent configuration; export to North America, Japan and South Korea markets, and give priority to reserving petrol-electric hybrid models; in emerging markets such as the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Africa, fuel tool vehicles and economical hybrids are the core of circulation. Blindly exporting pure electric cars in large quantities can easily lead to inventory backlog and discount losses.

Secondly, we should rationally view the shortcomings in the overseas circulation of pure electric used cars. Overseas battery testing standards are strict, and the discount rate for second-hand pure trams with severe decay is huge. After long-distance shipping, the battery quality assurance and maintenance and after-sales systems are imperfect, and acceptance by terminal buyers is limited; the testing standards for hybrid and fuel-used cars are mature, and maintenance versatility is strong., cross-regional circulation risks are lower, and cash flow turnover is more stable.

Finally, we should objectively look at the long-term trend of electrification, and we should not extremely deny pure electricity, nor blindly bet on the whole. Global electrification is a long-term slow process rather than a short-term comprehensive replacement. Hybrid and fuel models will still occupy the mainstream market share in the next ten years. There is no myth of "pure electricity takes all" in overseas markets. Respecting the real needs of infrastructure, consumption, and scenarios in different regions, and the balanced layout of diversified power models is the core logic for the sustainable development of cross-border circulation of used cars.

5. Conclusion

The inherent perception of the industry is often limited by the local single market environment. When we look at more than 90 car-consuming countries around the world, we can clearly see the diversity of the market. Pure electric power is an important development direction, but it is by no means the only answer. For second-hand car practitioners, only by understanding the real tiered demand overseas, giving up the extreme judgment of either or, and matching corresponding power models according to different regions can we truly seize the long-term dividends of global circulation.

Source: Zhixun Car Going to Sea

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