Data source: Announcement of China Automobile Manufacturers Association (released on August 12, 2026), Passenger Federation Branch, and Ministry of Commerce. The source is attached at the end of the article.

Opening: A set of data that shook the entire industry

On August 12, the China Automobile Association released production and sales data for July: exports in a single month were 1.043 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 81.3%-this is the second consecutive month that China's automobile exports have reached the level of 1 million vehicles. What is even more explosive is new energy: new energy exports in July were 553,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 145.5%, and exports accounted for more than 50% for two consecutive months.

The summary by the Deputy Secretary-General of the China Automobile Association is very accurate: the current automobile market is under pressure on domestic demand and strong foreign trade. The domestic market is no longer moving, and exports are becoming the core growth engine to stabilize the industry market. Today, we will demolish and tear it down. What structural changes have occurred to the cars going out to sea in the second half of 2026 and what are the opportunities?

Signal 1: Annual exports are expected to exceed 10 million vehicles for the first time, becoming the world's number one.

Let's look at the first half of the year first. From January to June, China's automobile exports were 5.31 million, a year-on-year increase of 53%. In June, it was 1.07 million vehicles per month; the China Automobile Association's caliber was 5.096 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 65.3%(there is a slight difference in the statistical methods of the two calibers).

At this rate, consulting firm Arrow predicts that China's automobile exports will reach 10 million units in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 41%, becoming the first country in the world to export 10 million vehicles a year-this figure is equivalent to Toyota's global sales throughout the year and 2.5 times the annual export volume of Japanese automobiles. The OICA (International Automobile Manufacturers Association) forecast is more radical, believing that it may even reach 12 million vehicles.

Bottom line: Export is no longer a leg in the multi-legged walk of China cars, but the main engine.

Signal 2: Russia returns to the largest buyer, Brazil becomes the number one market for new energy

Looking at the country structure, the two biggest changes in the first half of the year:

Russia returns to first place

In the first half of the year, 448,000 vehicles were exported to Russia, and in June, 84,000 vehicles led the world. In 2025, China car companies will destock in Russia. Demand will recover in 2026. Coupled with the continued lack of Western brands, Russia will still be the largest base for fuel vehicle exports.

Brazil tops new energy sources

In the first half of the year, 410,000 vehicles were exported to Brazil, including nearly 300,000 new energy vehicles, surpassing Belgium to become China's largest new energy export market. The Global South is changing from a supporting role to a leading role.

The top ten exports in the first half of the year: Russia, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Australia, Belgium, Mexico, Italy, the Philippines, United Arab Emirates, and Algeria. The two main lines are very clear: one is the traditional market in Russian + Europe, and the other is the new volume market in Brazil + Southeast Asia + Africa.

Signal 3: Plug-in and mixing has become a new engine for exports

In terms of power structure, new energy is also shifting gears internally:

In the first half of the year, new energy exports were 2.42 million units,+70% year-on-year;

Among them, 900,000 vehicles were mixed and exported, a year-on-year increase of 115%, and a year-on-year increase of 192% in June;

Pure electricity exports were 1.52 million units,+51% year-on-year.

The proportion of pure electricity is no longer the only one. Relying on the advantages of no mileage anxiety + oil and electricity, plug-in has carved a path in overseas markets with weak charging infrastructure (Russia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa). For traders, the overseas premium and turnover speed of plug-in and hybrid models may be more noteworthy opportunities than pure electricity.

Signal 4: Policy tightening and loosening coexist

There are two key actions in the 2026 sailing policy, in the opposite direction:

The first is tightening: the implementation of the new energy export license system. Starting from January 1, 2026, a license must be obtained for the export of pure electric passenger vehicles (jointly announced by the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Administration for Market Regulation). The industry has moved from barbaric growth to going out to sea with certificates. For traders without authorization from the main engine factory, the channels for obtaining cars will be further regulated, and the authorized and compliant supply chain will become more and more valuable.

The second is to relax: zero tariffs across Africa. Starting from May 1, 2026, China will implement 100% zero tariffs on tax items for all African countries that have diplomatic relations with China. Coupled with China's previous non-zero tariff arrangements, the import cost of complete vehicles and parts in Africa has been systematically suppressed.

And Africa's response has also come-Nigeria's 2026 New Fiscal and Taxation Policy:

Import tariffs on complete vehicles have been generally lowered by 5-10 percentage points, and new energy vehicles have dropped by as much as 15 percentage points;

Eliminate additional surcharges for imported passenger cars and reduce customs clearance time from an average of 14 days to 7 days;

Imports of pure electric vehicles will be further exempted from value-added tax.

The per capita car ownership in Nigeria is less than 10 vehicles per 100 people, making it a typical market with low ownership and high demand gaps. Policy loosening + zero tariffs in China and Africa + cost performance ratio for China cars, three factors add up, and the window period for West Africa, a market with a population of more than 200 million, has already opened.

Signal 5: The African market is shifting from used car paradise to affordable new cars

Looking at the four signals together, the African auto market is undergoing an intergenerational switch: from second-hand old car owners to the introduction of affordable new cars and new energy vehicles.

In the past, China cars entered Africa relying on the assembly of CKD parts to circumvent tariffs; now the direct delivery cost of the whole vehicle has dropped significantly, and affordable passenger cars and commercial vehicles of China brands can be exported directly, and the cost-effective advantages have been fully released. Tariff cuts in Kenya, Nigeria and other countries are all signals in the same direction.

But don't just see the meat, see the pit:

Foreign exchange and exchange rate: Nigeria Naira fluctuates greatly, and the risk of payment collection must be managed in advance;

Infrastructure: The coverage of charging piles and maintenance networks is insufficient, and new energy needs to be cultivated for a long time;

Implementation: Some port customs clearance still has gray costs, and there is a gap between actual implementation and official publicity.

Implementation suggestions for practitioners: first verify online, and then expand through all channels

An upward trend in the industry does not mean that everyone can make money. In the second half of 2026, it is recommended to follow this path:

Low-cost online verification

: You don't have to smash overseas positions and open offline channels as soon as you come up. First, use online platforms such as the International Station to run inquiries from target countries (markets such as Nigeria, Ghana, and Rwanda with policy liberalization), and use real data to verify which model, price, and country is the most popular.

Data feedback selection

: The models with concentrated inquiries are the result of market voting, and then targeted stocking, pricing, and certification are carried out.

Offline zoom in

: After verifying that the running is successful, we can talk about overseas dealer cooperation, local assembly, and social media matrix amplification-there is data at every step, and no luck is needed.

Exports exceed one million, Africa has zero tariffs, and Nigeria has reduced taxes... 2026 is a big year for cars to go to sea, but a big year does not mean lying around and making money. Policy dividends are for tickets. Whether they can be realized depends on who uses the lowest cost to clear the verification closed loop first.

This is the opportunity. Are you ready to get on the bus?

Attachment: Data source of this article

Data from China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, released on August 12, 2026 (exports in July were 1.043 million units, year-on-year +81.3%; new energy exports were 553,000 units, year-on-year +145.5%)

Data from the Passenger Federation Branch, released on July 25, 2026 (5.31 million vehicles were exported in the first half of the year,+53% year-on-year; Russia ranked first with 448,000 vehicles; Brazil is the largest new energy export market)

AlixPartners predicts: China's automobile exports will reach 10 million units in 2026,+41% year-on-year

OICA: In 2026, China's exports may reach 10 million-12 million vehicles

Ministry of Commerce: Zero tariffs will be implemented for all African countries that have established diplomatic relations from May 1, 2026

The Ministry of Commerce and other four departments announced that the new energy vehicle export license system will be implemented from January 1, 2026

Nigeria's 2026 fiscal and tax reform plan (reduce vehicle tariffs by 5-10 percentage points, reduce new energy by 15 percentage points, shorten customs clearance from 14 days to 7 days, etc.)

Source: Digital automobile export-Huohuo

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