According to industry insiders, there is a high probability that the Russian used car market will remain resilient in 2026, and the annual transaction volume is expected to rise slightly or be close to flat from 2025...

[Moscow News] On the eve of the "ForAuto-2026 Automobile Business Forum" held in Moscow on February 26, AUTOSTAT quoted the views of many industry insiders as saying that the Russian used car market will remain resilient in 2026, and the annual transaction volume is expected to rise slightly or be close to flat based on 2025. Andrey Grishakov, head of the used car division of AVTODOM and AvtoSpetsCenter Group, predicted AUTOSTAT that the used car market may grow by 4% to 7% in 2026. He believes that the core variables determining the direction of the market are still macro financial conditions, especially the central bank's key interest rate and the ruble exchange rate. In his judgment, if the key interest rate is lowered and the local currency weakens, there will be a clearer increase in the used car market-on the one hand, financing pressure will drop, on the other hand, expected changes in imported car prices will stimulate the pace of transactions.

Grishakov also mentioned that an emerging structural factor is that the Russian used car market is being "filled" by the increasing number of China brands and models. In his view, the advantages of these models are not only in the price, but also in the fact that more and more models are supported by the official distribution system and the higher availability of configurations that consumers care about, making them easier to circulate in the second-hand market.

Viktor Pushkarev, deputy director of AUTOSTAT's analysis department, believes that demand for used cars will remain stable in 2026 and sales may be "quite close" to 2025. He pointed out that structural constraints on the supply of new cars will continue to support the second-hand market: relying solely on the new car lineup of local Russian brands and China brands, it is difficult to fully cover consumers 'diverse needs for brands, models and power/configurations. In contrast, used cars are still attractive in terms of "more choices and more complete price gradients", while the expansion of car sources brought about by imports continues to increase options in the used market.

Talking about risk factors, Pushkalev reminded that if the exchange rate fluctuates significantly or the government continues to introduce measures to further tighten car import conditions, the second-hand market may be under pressure and growth expectations will be lowered.

[Brief Comment] For China's auto exporters, this forecast sends a realistic signal: Russia's "new-used cars" are entering a more normal cycle, and China brands are not only the main force in the supply of new cars, but also becoming an incremental source of used car supply. In the short term, the active second-hand market will divert some demand for new cars; but in the medium and long term, the circulation scale and price system (residual value) of used cars just determine whether new car consumers dare to buy or exchange them.

Source:https://eng.autostat.ru/news/27340/

Source: Guangdong Good Car

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