In the process of marketization of new energy vehicles, there is one anxiety followed by another anxiety.

Recently, the idea of "killing the line in eight years" for second-hand pure electric vehicles has once again become rampant. The so-called "8-year kill line" refers to the second-hand pure electric vehicle with the age of more than 8 years or the driving mileage of more than 120,000 kilometers. Due to the expiration of battery warranty, high maintenance cost and lack of detection standard, it faces the phenomenon of residual value falling precipitously or even rejected by car dealers in the circulation market, and is even nicknamed "scrap iron" by netizens.

Reporter investigation found that when it comes to pure electric vehicles over 8 years old, car owners, car dealers and car buyers all frown: car owners lament that they can't sell at a higher price, car dealers say they dare not accept them, and car buyers are afraid to avoid them.

Where did the "8-year killing line" come from

The person in charge of a used car auction platform told reporters that there are currently pure electric vehicles more than 8 years old on the platform, but the overall proportion is not large. Most inspection and appraisal personnel on the platform judge the condition of pure electric vehicles based on the experience and practices of fuel vehicles. There is no particularly effective method for testing the health of power batteries, and vehicle maintenance history is generally checked through a third party. "Even if the platform puts these pure electric vehicles that have been more than 8 years old on the shelves, car dealers are not very motivated to accept them. Because the performance and residual value of the power battery are not easy to grasp, I am afraid that it will not be easy to sell after buying it." he said.

According to the July China Automobile Hedging Rate Report jointly released by China Automobile Dealers Association and Jingzhen, the three-year-old Hedging Rate for plug-in hybrid cars is 43.3%, and the Hedging Rate for pure electric vehicles is 44.5%. Only two brands, Tesla and Tank, have a three-year vehicle age hedging rate of more than 50%. Based on the annual depreciation of 20%, there will be very little hedging rate for new energy vehicles after five years.

The saying of "killing the line in eight years" also goes back to the policy side. Since 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has clearly required that the warranty of the "three power" system of new energy vehicles should not be less than 8 years/120,000 kilometers. This standard has become the bottom line in the industry and has also virtually implanted an eight-year critical cycle into the market. awareness.

Data from the Ministry of Public Security shows that as of 2018, the number of new energy vehicles in China was 2.61 million. In other words, based on the age of the vehicle, at least 2.61 million new energy vehicles have been released from insurance. According to the calculation that the average mileage of online hailing cars can reach 80,000 to 120,000 kilometers a year, two-year-old online hailing cars have been released from insurance. Some insiders have calculated: for a 60kWh lithium iron phosphate battery pack, the replacement price for the entire pack is now 30,000 - 60,000 yuan, and the ternary lithium battery pack is 60,000 - 80,000 yuan. For an 8-year-old pure electric vehicle, the residual value of the entire vehicle may be only 30,000 to 50,000 yuan. It can be said that it is entirely supported by the residual value of the battery.

According to Wang Meng, an expert from the China Automobile Dealers Association, the market for pure electric vehicles over 8 years old is very divided in the second-hand market. Cars with the leading car brand and former car owners who were mainly domestic and with a battery health of more than 75%, still have normal circulation value. For example, there is still demand for BYD Han and Tesla Model 3 in 2018. However, non-mainstream brands, vehicles with retired online ride-hailing, and battery health below 70%, are basically "priced but not marketable." Industry data shows that more than 80% of used car dealers have explicitly rejected pure electric vehicles that are more than 5 years old.

"Objectively speaking, the 'eight-year killing line' is not a physical scrapping line, but a dividing line between market psychology and business risks." Fu Lu, general manager of Dr. Cha's ESG Strategic Development Department and general manager of Ningjia Service Haikou Direct Experience Center, pointed out that this phenomenon exists real in the market, but it cannot be generalized. Not all pure electric vehicles over 8 years old will become "scrap iron". When the original warranty liability ends and the battery risk shifts from the manufacturer to the car owners and car dealers, the simplest commercial hedging strategy in the market is to significantly reduce the price or even reject the car as long as it is eight years old. This is a commercial hedging behavior and does not mean that it is technically deemed obsolete.

Advanced pure electric vehicles can be bought, but be careful

Pure electric vehicles that are more than 8 years old are not the only way to be scrapped, so who is buying these vehicles? Wang Meng told reporters that the main customers of pure electric vehicles for more than 8 years are roughly divided into three categories: the first category is pragmatic buyers who just need commuting. In third-and fourth-tier cities and counties, consumers who can install charging piles at home will buy them. They just want to charge cheaply and make it more comfortable than riding a motorcycle. The second category is online ride-hailing and operating vehicle drivers. They also buy cars cheaply, but they have to weigh the risks of shrinking driving range and suddenly plunging batteries. The third category is knowledgeable players and accessory manufacturers. Some people specialize in collecting the chassis, motors, and electronic controls of retired pure electric vehicles, and selling them in parts. In addition, some people buy them for modification, such as the "plug-in batteries" that are now very popular in the gray market. In fact, doing so is extremely dangerous. The external battery is not within the monitoring range of the original vehicle's BMS system, which is equivalent to installing a "moving bomb." In Zhejiang, car owners have spontaneously modified themselves after spontaneously igniting, and the victims have claimed more than 100,000 yuan.

He suggested that for ordinary consumers who are interested in purchasing pure electric used cars, if they can obtain a third-party battery test report with CMA qualification, the SOH value will be clearly higher than 75%; the battery maintenance system of the purchased brand is mature, and the module will not be replaced with the entire package, and the cost will be controllable; the use scenario after buying a car is short-distance commuting to the city, and there is a private stake and does not rely on fast charging. Otherwise, be cautious about buying a pure electric vehicle that is more than 8 years old.

Fu Lu directly gave a portrait of the crowd who did not recommend buying pure electric vehicles for more than 8 years: Users who often travel long distances and across cities should not buy them, because the driving range of older pure electric vehicles has been severely reduced, charging efficiency is low, and long-distance driving experience is poor and risky. Users who do not have fixed charging conditions and rely entirely on public charging piles should not buy them. The inconvenience of recharging will greatly affect the daily experience. Users who plan to hold a car for more than 5 years and pursue zero risks should not buy it. The car has been released for 8 years and faces high maintenance uncertainty. Users who like niche and unpopular models should not buy them, otherwise they will face the risk of cutting off parts and having no access to maintenance.

She emphasized that the biggest risk faced by pure electric vehicles over 8 years old is that once the battery module or high-voltage component fails after the original warranty period ends, the maintenance cost will be very high. "Repair a car is more expensive than a car" is not an exception, but a common dilemma faced by old pure electric vehicles.

The industrial chain has overcome the pain point of "repairing a car is more expensive than a car"

Recently, as a leading power battery company, Ningde Times has taken the lead in taking action. Its independent aftermarket brand Ningjia Services teamed up with in-depth partner Dr. Cha to carry out full-link closed-loop practice around the pain points of the new energy vehicle industry at the Haikou Landing Cycle Vehicle Demonstration Base.

It is understood that the Haikou base has built a deep remanufacturing production line for R4 batteries. For vehicles that have been released from insurance for more than 8 years, hierarchical treatment is adopted: those with excellent vehicle condition will be directly circulated after certification; those with battery decay or local failure will undergo module-level maintenance, compliance remanufacturing and conditioning, and will be sold as recycling vehicles after completion. At the same time, we will open up the export business of used cars, transport ready-made elderly and compliant vehicles to overseas markets, and provide global quality assurance in conjunction with Ningde Times's overseas after-sales service network to open up value exports for elderly vehicles.

At the same time, after the eight-year warranty expires, follow-up special extended warranty services for the certified cycle vehicles will be provided. It is equivalent to extending the protection cycle backwards and solving the anxiety of "taking all risks at your own expense". This is an innovative attempt in China to target elderly new energy used cars, which reduces consumers 'psychological purchasing thresholds through risk sharing.

In addition, Fu Lu also introduced that with the vehicle-electricity separation architecture, battery assets are centrally managed and regularly tested and maintained by operators. The residual value of the whole vehicle is greatly weakened by the impact of individual battery decay. Eight years later, the market performance is significantly better than that of ordinary electric vehicles of the same era. Representative brands such as NIO have a power exchange system that maintains battery health within a controllable range, and second-hand circulation prices are relatively stable.

In fact, car companies have also taken actions to address the industry pain point of pure electric vehicles that has been "cut off in eight years". Not long ago, GAC Toyota released a series of policies at the Platinum 7 Users Conference, promising that even if the vehicle has been used for more than 8 years, as long as the battery fails, the manufacturer will still bear the warranty responsibility including replacing the battery cells, and directly replace all batteries for free. The above policies cover new and old users of Platinum 7 and Platinum 3X. This time, the manufacturer's full liability policy for the Platin-Smart 7 battery accident has been further expanded to include that in addition to the fire caused by the spread of external fire sources, GAC Toyota will directly bear the responsibility for battery accidents caused by quality reasons, chassis scratch or even traffic accident collisions.

Fu Lu believes that the first thing to solve the eight-year "scrap iron curse" is to establish a standardized battery health testing and evaluation system. Indicators such as battery SOH, charge and discharge history, and high-voltage system risk must be transformed into a credible test report endorsed by a third party to eliminate information asymmetry between buyers and sellers, so that pricing is no longer "one-size-fits-all" with an eight-year boundary. Rejected. Secondly, it is necessary to make up for the risk-covering mechanism after the expiration of the original warranty. After the original warranty expires, third-party extended warranty and battery special protection products are required to take on the risks, breaking the deadlock of completely self-bearing risks after 8 years and reducing the number of consumers purchasing elderly second-hand electric cars. threshold. The third is to develop compliant "three power companies" maintenance and vehicle in-depth remanufacturing capabilities. Achieve module-level maintenance, in-depth maintenance of battery packs, and compliance maintenance, reduce maintenance thresholds and maintenance costs after insurance release, and avoid the endless cycle of "repairing a car is more expensive than a car". Finally, we must improve the circulation ecology of circular vehicles. Open up dual channels for domestic second-hand circulation and overseas exports to build value exports for senior and compliant second-hand cars.

Source: China Automobile News

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