Stabilize expectations, going to sea must become the core growth engine

Qi Kuiyuan, general manager of the pickup truck business unit of China Dongfeng Import and Export Co., Ltd., firmly said at the 2026 Beijing Auto Show: "Dongfeng pickup trucks have never done simple vehicle trade when going out to sea. What we pursue is to move from 'product going out' and 'brand going in', and ultimately achieve a global leap-forward upgrade of' value going up'."

This conclusion accurately expresses the collective consensus of China's automobile industry at present-against the background of slowing growth in the domestic automobile market and intensifying competition for stocks,"going out to sea" is no longer a supplementary option to add to the icing on the cake, but a must-answer question that determines the survival and long-term development of enterprises, and is also the core engine driving the sustained growth of the entire industry.

The 2026 Beijing Auto Show has become a window to observe the globalization of China's automobiles. From Chery, BYD, Dongfeng, Chang 'an, GAC, Geely to Xiaopeng and Zero Run, almost all mainstream autonomous car companies have placed globalization strategies at the core of their booths. Executives have made intensive voices and unanimously regarded overseas markets as future sales growth. The main position.

Stabilize expectations, going to sea must become the core growth engine

1. Slow growth in domestic automobile sales "going out to sea" is a must-answer question

Currently, China's auto market is undergoing a profound structural transformation. Domestic sales growth is slowing down and stock competition is becoming fierce, which has become a reality that all auto companies must face.

According to statistics from China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as the "China Automobile Association"), domestic automobile sales in the first quarter of 2026 were 4.823 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 20.3%. The combination of multiple factors such as limited consumption scenarios and market saturation has made it difficult for the domestic market to support large-scale and rapid growth. Car companies have also realized that they can no longer rely solely on the local market.

Different from the domestic market, automobile exports continue to grow explosively, becoming one of the strong supports to hedge against industry pressure. Data from the China Automobile Association shows that in the first quarter of 2026, China's total automobile exports reached 2.226 million units, a significant increase of 56.7% year-on-year. For the first time, export volume in a single quarter surpassed Japan, ranking first in the world; Among them, 954,000 new energy vehicles were exported, a year-on-year increase of as high as 120%, accounting for 42.9% of the total exports, becoming a core growth pole. Export sales accounted for 31.6% of total sales in the first quarter, which means that one for every three cars sold drove overseas.

Qi Kuiyuan has a deep understanding of this: "The domestic pickup truck market is affected by factors such as restricted travel policies and limited consumption scenarios, and there is relatively limited room for growth; but looking at the global market, pickup trucks rely on multiple adaptation attributes such as commercial cargo, family passenger, and outdoor off-road., it has become a much-needed model in many regions such as Latin America, the Middle East and Africa, and the Asia-Pacific.' 'Going to sea' has become a must-answer question rather than a multi-choice question for China pickup truck companies to break through growth bottlenecks and climb into the high-value chain of the automobile industry."

This judgment applies to the entire automotive industry. In the past, automobile companies regarded "going to sea" as a supplement to digestion of production capacity, but now they have become the core of their strategy; in the past, they pursued short-term bulk trade, but now they focus on long-term value development. From whether to "go out to sea" to how to "go out to sea" with high quality, China automobile companies have completed a key leap at the cognitive level.

Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Car Market Information Joint Branch of China Automobile Dealers Association, pointed out: "From January to February 2026, the overseas retail sales of China's own brands were 720,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 66%. The overseas market has become the most certain growth track for independent car companies. The domestic market's 'involution' has intensified and profit margins continue to compress, while overseas markets still have broad incremental space and premium potential.'Going out to sea' is the only way for automobile companies to cross the cycle and achieve sustainable development."

2. The growth space in overseas markets is on the order of tens of millions

The outbreak of China's automobile "going to sea" is not a short-term dividend, but a long-term trend based on the advantages of the industrial chain, product competitiveness and global demand gap. Industry insiders believe that rapid growth will continue in the next 3 to 5 years, with tens of millions of vehicles The export scale is close at hand, and the overseas market share is expected to exceed 40%.

In terms of overall scale, Huachuang Securities Research Report predicts that China's automobile exports will reach 7.4 million to 8 million units in 2026, and are expected to exceed 10 million units in 2030. Its proportion in the total global automobile trade will increase from 18% in 2025 to more than 25%. Data released by China Automotive Technology Research Center Co., Ltd. shows that the average annual growth rate of China's automobile exports will remain above 20% in the next five years. The proportion of overseas sales in the total sales of automobile companies will continue to increase. The overseas proportion of leading automobile companies will exceed 30%, and some brands even reach 50%. The annual global automobile sales are about 90 million units, and the overseas market capacity excluding China exceeds 60 million units. Currently, the global market share of China brands is only about 13%, which is far lower than that of Japanese and German brands, and the growth space is extremely broad.

From the perspective of regional markets, the global automobile market is characterized by differentiated development and precise gold mining. China automobile companies adapt to local conditions and implement one policy for each region, achieving breakthroughs in different regions, forming a global pattern supported by multiple points. Specifically, the Southeast Asian market has become the fastest breakthrough highland. Yang Xiaoming, president of Embofu's China and Asia Pacific, made it clear: "China cars are rapidly replacing Japanese cars in Southeast Asia. With new energy advantages, high cost performance and localized adaptation, they are quickly seizing market share given up by Japanese brands." The European market is the core of high-end breakthroughs. Despite facing trade barriers, China automobile companies continue to cultivate deeply through KD factories and technical cooperation, and the proportion of high value-added products continues to increase. Latin America, Middle East Africa and Middle East markets are the basic sales volume, Central and East Africa markets are just in need of strength, and the Middle East has become a brand premium highland relying on government procurement and high-end consumption. The Asia-Pacific right-hand market, Russia and Central Asia markets are also growing rapidly, forming a global network with full coverage.

Cui Dongshu analyzed and pointed out: "China's automobile exports have formed a diversified layout, with ASEAN accounting for 28.7%, Europe 24.3%, the Middle East 18.5%, and South America 15.2%. The balanced layout has reduced the risk of fluctuations in a single market. The share of China brands in the southern hemisphere market reaches 18%, and the share of Southeast Asia and West Asia exceeds 50%. Some regions have formed absolute advantages, and global growth potential has been fully released." The differences in demand in different regions just match the product advantages of China car companies in all categories and multi-power products. Diesel, gasoline, pure electricity and hybrid are simultaneously used to meet the diverse needs of global users, and growth potential continues to be released.

3. Say goodbye to extensive trade and move towards localization of the entire value chain

China car companies are transforming from "product going global" to "brand going in and value going up." They bid farewell to the extensive trade model of single vehicle export and shift to the localization and deep cultivation of the entire value chain, in manufacturing, channels, after-sales, branding and other fields to fully implement and build a sustainable global operating system.

In terms of localized manufacturing, automobile companies have deployed KD spare parts assembly plants and vehicle production bases to achieve "local manufacturing and local supply", effectively circumventing tariff barriers, reducing costs, and shortening delivery cycles. Changan Automobile has built 22 overseas manufacturing bases including the Rayong factory in Thailand, with a production capacity of 350,000 units; BYD has built factories in Hungary, Thailand, Brazil and other places, and its overseas production capacity will exceed 800,000 units in 2026; Chery has launched a European operation center in Spain, with 10 major overseas factories in the world, and localized production has become standard.

In terms of channel and operation localization, automobile companies have built localized teams to deeply integrate local culture and achieve precise operations. GAC International has established more than 300 sales outlets around the world, with localized employees accounting for more than 60%; LinkLink insists on being "born globally" and launches subscription-based services in Europe to suit local consumption habits. Chery put forward the concept of "In Somewhere, For Somewhere, Be Some‐Where", emphasizing integrating into local R & D, manufacturing, and supply chain systems to become a truly localized enterprise.

In terms of technology and ecology "going out to sea", China automobile companies have upgraded from product output to technology output and standard output. BYD has implemented flash charging network and battery technology overseas, and the commissioning of the Everest flash charging station marks the globalization of energy replenishment infrastructure; supply chain companies such as Ningde Times and Huawei have simultaneously "gone to sea" to provide global technical support, forming a "complete vehicle + parts" collaborative "going to sea" pattern. Qi Kuiyuan emphasized: "Dongfeng Pickup has completely abandoned the extensive model of short-term bulk trade, focusing on localization and high-quality roots in the entire value chain, unswervingly following the route of 'China Standards + Global Vision + Regional Precision Adaption', and steadily realizing the transformation from products' going out to sea 'and brands' going out to sea 'towards ecological' going out to sea '."

In terms of after-sales protection, automobile companies are accelerating the improvement of overseas spare parts systems and service networks to enhance user experience. BYD has established 120 service centers in Europe to provide lifetime warranty for three power companies; Chery has launched a unified global service standard to solve users 'worries. Compliance management and control have been upgraded simultaneously, strictly benchmark global emission, safety, and environmental protection standards, build and improve the international trade compliance system, effectively avoid geopolitical and policy change risks, and ensure the stability and long-term "going out to sea".

Under the refined layout, the overseas business of China automobile companies has achieved high-quality growth. Leading car companies such as BYD, Chery, and Chang 'an continue to increase their proportion of overseas sales, and their brand influence continues to expand, accelerating their transformation from "Made in China" to "Global Brand."

4. The service shortcomings in the acceleration of "going out to sea" still need to be solved

Although China car companies have made remarkable achievements in "going abroad", in the process of rapid expansion, the service system lags behind sales growth and has become a shortcoming that restricts the high-quality development of globalization. The imperfect supporting systems such as insurance protection, after-sales service, and financial support have led to a discount in user experience, an impact on brand reputation, and high operating costs, which urgently needs to be solved through the entire industry chain.

The imperfect after-sales service system is the most prominent problem. Accenture research shows that China car companies face three major difficulties in overseas after-sales: First, the spare parts supply network lags behind. The waiting time for parts just needed in markets such as the Middle East and Africa is as long as 2 to 3 months, which is far less than the 24-hour delivery standard of foreign brands; Second, the density of service outlets is insufficient, making it difficult for a single brand to support large-scale channel investment, making maintenance inconvenient; Third, maintenance standards are not unified, the training of localized technicians lags behind, and the quality of service is uneven. Problems in the commercial vehicle field are more prominent. Some Middle East logistics teams have reported that batteries and brake systems wear down quickly under high temperatures, but the warranty scope is limited and maintenance costs remain high, which affects brand reputation. Qi Kuiyuan also admitted: "Overseas markets have complex operating conditions, users have high requirements for maintenance response speed, and insufficient after-sales network coverage, which is still the focus of our continuous optimization."

Shortcomings in financial and insurance services restrict market expansion. Wang Yao, deputy chief engineer of China Automobile Manufacturers Association, said that behind the rapid expansion of new energy vehicles "going out to sea", shortcomings in financial supporting have become bottlenecks. The insufficient supply of overseas auto insurance and lack of data accumulation have led to high insurance costs. In the European market, the premiums of new energy vehicles in China are equivalent to those of luxury brands, which directly affects consumers 'willingness to purchase.

There are three major pain points in overseas financial services: first, the coverage of local financial institutions is insufficient, and the overseas financing costs of automobile companies are high; second, consumer credit matching is lagging behind, and the loan purchase process of overseas users is cumbersome and interest rates are high; third, insurance data is missing. Due to the lack of collision and maintenance data on China models, local insurance companies can only price based on high-risk risks, increasing the burden on users. Ping An Property and Casualty Insurance research shows that the replacement cost of core components of the three power companies in the European market is 200% to 300% higher than that in the domestic market, the maintenance hours exceed 100 euros per hour, and the warranty costs of automobile companies remain high.

In response to these shortcomings, industry experts have suggested that the core direction is to promote the coordinated "going out to sea" of the entire industry chain and build an integrated service ecosystem. Zhang Yongwei, chairman of the Chebaihui Research Institute, suggested that banks, insurance and other financial institutions should be promoted to collaborate with vehicle companies to "go out to sea", establish a financial service system covering overseas markets, and provide full-chain services such as consumer credit, cross-border financing, and auto insurance protection. Yang Zhongping, deputy secretary-general of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that cars should not go alone to "go out to sea". They need the collaboration of complete vehicles, parts, finance, insurance, logistics, etc. to build a global ecosystem driven by "manufacturing + service."

In 2026, China's automobile industry will stand at a critical juncture in globalization. The domestic market has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality cultivation, and the overseas market has jumped from supplementing the track to a core growth engine. A global transformation of the automobile industry led by China brands is profoundly rewriting the world automobile landscape.

"Going to sea" is not a temporary outlet, but the only way for China's automobiles to go global; growth is not a simple increase in numbers, but a comprehensive upgrade of the entire industry chain capabilities, global service system, brand value and user reputation. Faced with a complex international environment, regional barriers and service shortcomings, China automobile companies are turning product advantages into market advantages and scale advantages into brand advantages with a more mature mentality, a more stable pace, and more open cooperation., turning a single breakthrough into a full value chain victory.

Source: China Automobile News

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