Putin finally publicly admitted the fuel shortage at the end of June.

He announced a complete ban on gasoline and jet fuel exports. Ordered the refinery to overload and postpone maintenance.

But the problem is--

You refine it, and the drone continues to explode.

Reuters latest report on July 16: Russia is falling into stagflation.

Growth stagnated and inflation accelerated. Energy is the blood of the economy. When the blood is broken, the whole body spasms.

Bottom line: This is not price fluctuations, it is a systemic collapse. Within 6 to 12 months, there is no solution.

If you can't add fuel, don't add fuel

People's ability to adapt is always faster than imagined.

Can't add oil, can you? Then buy a car that doesn't use gas.

Reuters reported on July 2 that Russians are scrambling for electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids.

A dealer in Moscow said:

Since the fuel situation became complex, demand has increased several times.

Look at the data.

Russian new energy vehicle sales from January to May 2026:

● Plug-in hybrid (PHEV): 24,600 vehicles, a year-on-year increase

125%

● Pure electric (BEV): 4,460 vehicles, a year-on-year increase

19%

And pay attention--

The oil shortage broke out in full at the end of May, so the growth rate since June is still accelerating. This curve is far from the top.

Why is plug-in so much stronger than pure electricity?

It's not that pure electricity is bad. It is Russia that this market is too special.

Two reasons:

First, there are not enough charging piles.

Moscow and St. Petersburg are okay. Outside the core city? Charging piles are rarer than gas stations.

The great thing about plugging and mixing is that it is enough for daily use to charge it from a 220V outlet at home overnight. Occasionally, I run long distances. Anyway, the oil shortage is intermittent, and there is not a drop of oil. Burn it.

Second, Siberian winter is a pure electric killer.

Thirty to forty degrees below zero, the pure electric battery life is directly cut. There is a guaranteed engine, and consumers 'psychological threshold is naturally low.

So you see-intermixing is the natural optimal solution for this Russian track.

The Russians also did another thing: they converted a large number of fuel vehicles into LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) and filled tanks.

Whether you buy a new car or change an old car, the core logic is the same: get rid of gasoline dependence.

Let me tell you a heart-breaking fact

These wildly looted electric cars and plug-ins-whose family belongs to them?

You may have guessed it.

Reuters quoted data from the authoritative Russian organization Autostat and concluded very simply:

All of Russia's best-selling EV and hybrid brands come from China.

Geely, Dongfeng, GAC, Chery.

Let's take a look at the results from January to May:

Geely-about 7,000 vehicles. The plug-in SUV matrix is the most complete and the channels are the most mature. Zeekr is already the protagonist in the Moscow exhibition hall.

Dongfeng-about 6,500 vehicles. Not only sell cars, but also engage in localized assembly and technology export.

GAC-about 5,200 vehicles. Play steadily, quality reputation is accumulating.

Chery-about 4,800 vehicles. New models are rapidly introduced, with a dark horse attitude.

Evolute-approximately 3,900 vehicles. Sounds like a local Russian brand?

No. It is a shell replacement from the east wind.

It used Dongfeng's assembly kit and posted a Russian sign.

So strictly speaking-the top five are all made in China and all are in the China supply chain.

This is not the brand going abroad, this is the industrial chain going abroad.

There is a more important signal

Netcom quoted Autostat's research and said a very key sentence:

Most importers have insufficient inventories and fail to fully respond to sudden demand.

Translation into human language: It's not that it can't be sold, it's that it can't be shipped.

This is the biggest business opportunity. Whoever solves supply chain efficiency first will take all.

Calculate your account carefully: How big is the window?

Let's talk about three pits first:

Fewer charging piles

●--The coverage rate of non-core cities is bleak and difficult to solve in the medium term

devaluation of the ruble

●--High profits but high exchange rate risks

Western sanctions

●--Settlement and logistics are occasionally stuck

But don't be intimidated by these three questions. What really works are three hedging variables:

First, there is no need for charging piles at all.

A 220V household outlet is enough for daily use. This is a natural adaptation of plug-in to the Russian market. You don't need to wait for infrastructure, you can sell it now.

Second, the Russian government has begun to turn.

In 2026, the Ministry of Energy clearly proposed to promote fast charging networks above 150kW and provide tax incentives and research and development subsidies to new energy vehicle companies. It is hard to say how strong the implementation is, but the direction is clear.

Third, the user's brain has changed.

When refueling goes from a daily activity to a six-hour hard labor wait-electric cars are no longer early adopters, but safe-haven assets.

Once this psychological transformation is completed, there will be no return.

Okay, count the ceiling.

Russia sells about 1.5 million new cars a year.

If new energy penetration climbs from its current single digits to 15%-20%-which is reasonable considering the speed at which most markets around the world are transforming under the impact of oil prices-it means annual sales of 220,000 to 300,000 vehicles.

China brands now have a market share of more than 90%. At this ratio, there is an increase of 200,000 to 270,000 vehicles per year.

Compare: China exported a total of 5.096 million vehicles in the first half of the year. Russia is not the largest in quantity of new energy vehicles.

But it has three characteristics that make other markets jealous:

High profits. The gross profit of bicycles is generally better than that of Southeast Asia and South America.

Less competition. European, American, Japanese and Korean brands have basically withdrawn or stagnated. The poker table is full of China people.

Strong stickiness. Once the after-sales and charging ecosystem is established, it is extremely difficult for users to switch.

This is a piece of fat meat withhigh profits + low competition + high stickiness.

4. Keep a backup plan, but don't be too pessimistic.

Some people may ask: What if one day Russia and Ukraine stop, the refinery is repaired, and the oil shortage is gone?

There will be backflow. But two factors will suppress the magnitude of backflow:

First, once charging habits are developed, inertia itself can retain a large number of users.

Second, even if the war is stopped, energy infrastructure restoration will be a matter of year, and there is a high probability that oil prices will remain high.

My judgment: The oil shortage will be alleviated, but China's new energy vehicles will not lose their fundamentals in Russia. The market switches from panic buying to structural growth.

Source: Xiong Yu, digital automobile export

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