Russia's new automobile import policy implemented from April 1, 2026 and its impact on the market. The core content is as follows:

1. Core content of the New Deal:

Completely close the gray import channel: the new regulation completely blocks the parallel import channel that was previously transferred to Russia through the Eurasian Economic Union (such as Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan) for "low tax clearance," requiring full payment of taxes and fees according to Russian local standards, so as to make the original price arbitrage space zero.

Unified customs clearance standards: The tax incentives for "personal use" have been eliminated, and individual and commercial customs clearance are subject to market prices, which makes the model of relying on "ants to move" for small and medium-sized traders to lose their jobs.

Scrap tax continues to rise: Car scrapping tax has increased by 70%-85% in 2024 and is planned to increase by another 10%-20% every year between 2026 and 2030, significantly increasing the cost of car purchases.

New energy vehicles: Second-hand pure electric and plug-in hybrid models are temporarily exempted from 20% import tariffs, but they still require complete legal certificates, and the value-added tax has been increased to 22%.

2. Policy motivation:

The main purpose is to protect the local automobile industry and increase tax revenue. Gray imports once accounted for about 12% of Russia's new car market, resulting in lost tax revenue. At the same time, the share of China brands in the Russian market will exceed 51% in 2025, squeezing local brands. The new policy aims to force car companies to localize production in Russia and keep tax revenue and employment at home.

3. Market impact:

Small and medium-sized traders: Merchants that rely on gray channels will be directly eliminated.

China car companies: The pure import path is blocked and facing downward pressure on sales, but accelerating localized production (such as factory building and assembly) has become the only way out and a new growth point.

Russian consumers: Car prices are expected to generally increase by 25%-40%, and consumption may shift to local brands (such as Lada) or high-priced regular imported cars.

4. Suggestions for China car companies:

Three strategies to break the game were proposed:

Accelerate localized factory construction/assembly to avoid import barriers.

Focus on compliant second-hand new energy vehicles and use the 2026 - 2028 tariff exemption window to explore online ride-hailing, logistics and other markets.

Explore new markets, such as Mexico, United Arab Emirates, Southeast Asia, etc., to spread risks.

5. Core conclusions:

The new policy on April 1 is the starting point for compliance and localization of the Russian automobile market. For China car companies, this marks a key watershed from relying on "gray arbitrage" to making quick money to having to deeply cultivate the local ecology and seek long-term development.

Source: Leading the way to the sea by Gaoshen's car

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